Trading Journal – Friday July 20

DXU18 – some slightly concerning price action on the US dollar index with the price having failed to push through their 95 level on two previous occasions and now on its third attempt having failed three days in a row although it did make a new High in this attempt. It’s possible that could just be building in order for the final push to break through but at this stage I’m keeping a close eye on the train potentially changing. The good sign is that it looks like it’s bounced off the 40 day moving average so at this stage I just stay long and wait for the price action to develop.
KCU18 – price seems to be finding a bottom around 106 and at this stage there is nothing more to do because it’s at the edge of the current price extreme and there’s no clear opportunities that offer a good risk reward.
ZWU18 –  still no clear price signals in either direction that I can see with the 40 day average Crossing back over the 100 day moving average whilst the 200 day moving average continues to alternate between trending up and trending down.
BLCM – all of the moving averages seem to be converging for blcm with the price sitting at the bottom of the support channel rising from the 31st of January low just above $5. What is concern is the price attempted to rally through the 200 day moving average after it’s initial break in mid June and failed so it’s really sitting at the make or break point right now. Yesterday’s candle was a doji after about 7 or 8 sessions of trending down so that’s an encouraging sign given that it was right on the support trend line from the end of January low. Bexley maintains a pretty neat Trend Channel from that same January low with the highs made in mid-march and mid-april and mid June or more or less similar distance from the bottom of the Trend Channel so it’s plausible we could expect another rally from this point towards the top of the channel.
SB – sugar is trading a similar pattern to coffee at the moment with support seemingly being found around the $0.11 level. All the trains are still down so nothing to do on this one for now.
HGV18 – after the huge decline copper continues to put on pressure to the downside with the price closing near the lows on Thursday and the price level around 2.70. No action to be taken here for now, although I suspect it might rally a little bit from these levels.
AUD – Australian dollar rise again tracking sideways after another bout of consolidation since the middle of June. Don’t really have any specific indicator that it seems to be responding to right now. It’s possible to draw a trendline from the late January High which it attempted to break in early June but failed and then sold off again so perhaps another test of that line is an indicator.
CL – crude has a pretty well defined uptrend with the 200 day moving average pointing strongly higher and the price has seemed like a good buy around the 100 day moving average which it has touched a couple of times. Not near any key levels at the moment but it will be interesting to see how the next few sessions play out with perhaps another test of the 100 day moving average seeming likely.
GC – gold is currently trading at 1219 and seems to be in a pretty sharp down trend right now. Whilst my contrarian self believes that there’s probably a Bounce in here somewhere it does not seem wise at this stage bait the bear as this particular downtrend looks like it is stronger than the last few since the January 2017 rally from the 1130 level. It is now below the train line going all the way back to the November 2015 low and the 61.8% retracement of that move is around 1173 so it will be very interesting to see how the price responds to that level. Having said that my previous analysis where I was looking for a long downtrend that slowly flattened out and then the 100 day moving average moved above the 200 day moving average has already occurred back in August 2017 and with the price now just below the 200 day moving average about from here could certainly be something for me to buy. My underlying macroeconomic bias used to be long gold with all the crazy stuff going on in the world but the US dollar strength is making it hard for now so we just have to be patient and pay attention to that 1173 level.
ZSQ18 – stepping back to a five year chart after a long town train the prices had stabilized and then all of the moving averages converged around the 1011 before the price failed and dropped spectacularly down towards the 825 level. If the price can rally back up above 850 then I would expect rally all the way up towards 1000 might be possible as that would more or less ignore that the support at 850 has held. In the short term buying around 8:25 has been good so we’ll just wait and see out the price response but the moving averages on a short-term chart do not look good. The low on the significant volume hammer candle from the 19th of June was just below 850 so close back above that level could be encouragement for the bulls and a sign for the bears to take their profits.
ZM – soybean meal has been trading sideways more or less since it made the low on June 19th. It has attempted to push higher a few times and the low of the range is approximately 324. The medium-term 40 day moving average is strongly lower so maybe it is just catching it’s breath after the step down from 380 in late May but for now it looks to be decent buying around the 324 level but only on a short-term basis for a move up to around 350 or so, stop at 320.

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