Trading Journal – Monday July 23rd

DXU18 – the price has again come back down to the 40 day moving average so whilst it is not the most ominous candle it is still a bit concerning to see the recent weakness but I suppose in terms of the uptrend we could just say that it is taking it’s time. Just have to see how it responds to the 40 day moving average.
KCU18 – had a rally on Friday session again off the lows around 107 up to 110 so that was something to keep an eye on I’ll be interested to see how this current rally plays out. Nothing to do in the short term.
ZWU18 – wheat had another impressive up day yesterday and continues it’s confusing sideways journey and I couldn’t even really say it is a clearly defined range or channel by which you could trade so unless you are buying mean reversion on an options trade that’s the only thing I could think of that might work well at the moment.
BLCM – both supporting trend lines from the late January lows have now been broken so that’s just another negative after the lower High that was made on the 6th of July. There’s nothing really to save this from going lower now aside from the last desperate support at 7.28 which was the low from the 29th of June bottom and if it can’t move higher from there then it could be a long sharp way down. I do have to say in terms of the sequence of higher lows and higher highs that the trend is unbroken until that low is breached at 7.32. Although all of the negative signals that it is sending by failing the support trendlines and failing to make a new High does not augur well.
SBV18 – there does seem to be buying around the $0.11 level so it’s possible we could expect a rally from here but the bigger trend is down so better to wait until the rally occurs and then use it as an opportunity to sell again most likely from the 100 day moving average.
HGU18 – I think the price action yesterday was quite interesting given the Thursday session made a new low in this downtrend. The low from the Thursday session was around 2.6766 and then yesterday we saw a higher open and then attempted sell-off before closing near the top of the Thursday candle around 2.7560. Still happy to avoid doing too much on this because of the sharp nature of the sell off and I don’t have any clear insight as to where it might stop. The next major low I can see on the charts which the price might respond to is around 2.5451 from the 8th of May 2017 low.
CLQ18 – crude oil still trading in the middle of no man’s land at the moment so nothing to do here
GCQ18 – another rally at the moment in the gold price over the last two sessions but overall nothing to do as it’s not need anything that I can see will change the story.
ZSQ18 – price did indeed continue up to the 850 level so will be very interesting to see which direction it takes from here. The question in my mind is whether there’s enough selling to continue the down trend or has it just been a false break below the 850 level and now the bears taking profit plus the value buyers will jump into drag the price back up to the 200 day moving average at 1002. Given how large the down move was and how short the up move has been I don’t think there’s a good risk reward here so I’m just going to sit on the sidelines.
ZM – there’s a lot of historical lows between 300 and 310 but for now it seems like the 326 level seems to be holding most of the selling so I would either suspect that there’s a significant buyer around that level or one of the major sellers is taking profit. I’d be surprised if there was another massive down move after the one we just seen so I think it’s probably not actually that dangerous to be buying around 325 with a stop only slightly lower say around 320 and up side around 340 to 350.


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