Trading Journal – 31st July

DXU18 – price is still looking weak at the moment and really failing to go on with the job, the short term averages are flattening out. I am going to put a stop in place at the 93.80 level as that was Paul’s suggested key level and not risk any more money.

KCU18 – slight break above the 15 day moving average at the opening of today’s session although the weakness in yesterday’s session would make me think the price is headed lower (again).

ZWU18 – I did get long at 536 and have a stop at 520. The price action so far in the session is looking good, building on yesterday’s strong up day. So far I feel like something might be going on which nobody in the media knows or has reported on, so whoever is buying knows something bad is coming. Might be the drought conditions in Australia or global heat wave in various parts of Europe but the strength and follow up in buying looks good so far.

SBV18 – another new low. I’m just a bit gun shy on this one to pull the trigger in such a small moving trend because of some of the massive up and down days in the last year. A one day move could erase 4-5 days of slow and steady gains or worse still if i take a short with a small stop and get blown away by a gapping market. Anyway I’m just not comfortable taking a position in “no man’s land” so to speak.

HGU18 – feels like a good call to put my stop in place. Market is weaker again drifting flat to lower, no good trade that i can see here.

ZSQ18 – the retracement of soybeans continues, currently tracking at 884-5 and could make it all the way to 900 which would mark a retracement of +10% on the original move from 1050 down to 810. It is also intersecting with the 40 DMA around current levels so perhaps see how it approaches the big figure and use this as a chance to get short. The 50-61.8% retracement zone of the previous move is between 931 to 960 on the ZSQ18 soybean chart, so I feel the prudent thing to do is take the risk the price does not get so high rather than get short early and have the price continue to rise. So, I will wait and watch to see where the price goes.

ZMZ18 – This seems to be building at the moment and I think I might be on to something here as the shape of the rise is stable and well supported. A relatively smooth curve upwards with limited volatility. Two upper tails before a couple of higher trading days in a tight range, holding onto gains. If I was a short I wouldn’t want to see that type of price action building against me. I might be wrong and still early days but encouraging. Will be looking to add if the price action above 340 gives me confidence.

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