Trading journal – 1st August

DXU18 – an encouraging bounce in the US dollar index overnight. Still not above the midpoint of that bearish candle on Friday which is a bad sign. Nothing to do but wait and watch.
KCU18 – Price lower again probably not a bad place to short given the price action (rejection of the previous day’s attempted move higher in a downtrend) but for me still too far from any major levels and I don’t want to get caught in no man’s land similar to the current sugar situation.
ZWU18 – the price has pushed on to 553 this morning and tested the upside in the Tuesday session, going as high as 565. This is encouraging but not above the old high, so I’m waiting for a clean break of that before adding. I’ll just move my stop up for now to the midpoint of that bullish candle before to ensure I don’t lose money on this one (assuming no gaps).
SBV18 – sugar has broken lower again and took looks to be aiming for the low in mid 2015 just above the 10 cent level. Would I want to be on board as it gets sucked into that level? Sure. But it could be a nasty bounce once Short sellers interested in that level take profit. Who’s going to hold on below that level? Have to be long from much higher levels or something like that. I’m almost more inclined to buy from that level as a retracement seems inevitable. So perhaps I should buy a couple of OTM calls on expectations of a bounce but what is an appropriate time frame? Maybe some 1 month options options would give it enough time to work. Have to look at what a sharp bounce looks like and then get a price based on a comparable time frame.
HGU18 – copper looks like it could still rally from here, maybe I got out too early but better to manage that risk and not lose any money. The high from the 31st of July was just above 2.84 and did not surpass the previous shortterm high around 2.86. Wait and see if something develops.
ZSQ18 – soybeans has pushed through 900 and looks to be set for the 50% to 61.8% retracement area. Still not a clear trade as the bigger picture still is a downtrend but something that I am monitoring with interest especially if soybean meal tends to lead soybeans.
ZMZ18 – the fact that this sell-off was not able to turn the 200 day moving average lower and the price action is now looking like a consolidation which is building into a move higher gives me encouragement to add to the position if we hold above 340. Not there yet but another reinforcing point was that the US dollar index was higher overnight so that continues to move sideways or slightly higher than this could be a very promising sign for soybean meal.

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