Trading journal – August 7th

DXU18 – might be a genuine break out this time, price holding near the top of the recent range. I’m going to wait for a break and hold (and close!) above 95.50 before adding. A good amount of consolidation combined with a close above three recent high would give me a lot of confidence the price was going to move higher.

KCU18 – Looks to be a good buy around 106, effectively the bears tried to take the price below the recent low from the 6th of July and failed. Although I should probably take a second to review the shape of Monday’s candle which whilst positive also contains an element of negativity in the long upper shadow. Confusing signals are a sign to wait until the picture becomes clearer.

ZWU18 – wheat is looking quite bullish at the moment and seems to be building into something possibly meaningful. Just going to sit on my 2 contracts for now as I don’t want to get stopped out of this is a big move. Drought conditions in Australia could be the catalyst, just going to move my stop so I leave with a minimum of 1k should the price come back.

SBV18 – another candle to make me wary yesterday with the higher open and close both positive but the long upper trail relative to the body was less encouraging. Unless the price moves above 11.40 I would think this is just another short selling opportunity. Is out one I’m willing to take? No. So many short sellers I prefer to wait till we get closer to 10 and then just put a long position on with a tight stop as it has been a long and pronounced downtrend. We might not get to 10 but I prefer to wait until that level than get caught in between.

HGU18 – silly play where I didn’t follow my trade plan by putting my stop on the trade where I have a position because Interactive Brokers stuffed up my close-out order. I didn’t intend to have the position and then when it went in my favour for a small profit of 1 k I didn’t jump on it, I just left my stop at the entry price which was hit overnight. I think as a result of some recent trades where there’s not a set up in place that I would expect a big win for, I should just be taking all of those 1k moves whilst waiting for the big winner. I’ve been mostly doing well at that except for BLCM. A lot of the others feel like they’ve either been no loss and in the money at some point or closed out at no loss. Haven’t had too many where the stop has just been hit in the original location, meaning I’ve been picking my entry points relatively well which is encouraging.

ZSU18 – soybean futures are gaining my interest as the price seems to have stabilized relatively quickly after the recent peak and not sold off more dramatically as I thought more likely. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday sessions last week all saw the bears attempt to push the price lower however they failed and today it looks like the price might hold at current levels which might give the bears cause to exit their positions. Is now the time to act? Perhaps but only with a very tight stop and only if you can catch the price near the bottom of the range. Actually when I look at the chart again, if the price got down below the recent lows from last week I would be dissuaded from taking action so my entry would be anywhere up to 900 and my stop would be at 895.

ZMZ18 – the price actually came very close to my stop last week before bouncing and now with the price seemingly stabilising I’m going to add more at current levels which is roughly 332 and leave my stop at 326. So my initial unit will be exited at cost by which I mean the entry price and the second unit will have a 6 point cost. I’m actually not that far from my entry point so all I’m really doing is increasing my risk and chance of getting stopped out on something which looks like it might actually be moving. Which prompts the question: What is my ultimate goal for this trade ? I previously mentioned 340 as a target which would seem the obvious place to take profit given it previously made a high there. I suppose I am being encouraged by the way support held around 320 and now that it has made a new higher high after the one day rally on July 6th and seems to be holding a higher low. The retracement of the move down from 384-324 has a 50% level at 352 and a 61.8% level at 359, the 100 day moving average is also at 357. I think all of that would suggest that perhaps the run-up to 350 is quite likely but where it stops after there is unknown and especially with the 200 day moving average at 346 I can see myself feeling that one good trade would be taking the smart money off the table at the 200 day moving average. I’ve been surprised by how many opportunities I’ve found recently. Perhaps part of it has been the Trump volatility but it certainly is giving me confidence in the near term that I can cash in short-term training opportunities and then wait for the more high quality setups and build slowly into those.

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