Trading journal – 10th August

DXU18 – the US dollar index has almost pushed above it’s most recent High from the 19th of July and looks like this time it could be trying to make a move so I’ll be looking to add if the couple of days price action seems stable. I’m basically looking for relatively small range (not too volatile), a higher low and a higher close with the low and the close ideally towards the top of the candle from Thursday. If Friday’s session exploded higher then I would probably sit on my existing units and wait for the price to come back to somewhere near the midpoint of that explosive candle.

KCU18 – given the US dollar was about half a percent higher and coffee held at current levels, Thursday’s price action was actually quite a bullish signal. It didn’t make a new low when it would have been easy to do so. Open interest in the September contract is almost being overtaken by the December contract so perhaps that is part of it but their moves overnight were roughly in sync. Given the pattern of selling at the 15 day moving average has been relatively successful I am loathe to go long at these levels without a tight stop and the current price of 107.65 is too far above the recent low of 105.92 for me to have any interest.

ZWU18 – a little bit of consolidation is the price comes off the peak on the 7th of August but the price is holding up after the midpoint of the bullish candle from the 6th of August so nothing too concerning for me at the moment just possibly some consolidation. My stop is still at 560 so just sitting on that to see if we get any more buying interest because things are starting to look quite bullish.

CCU18 – there have been quite a few volatile days in the last 2 months for coco and I only noticed when I looked at Thursday’s relatively small range and realised it was down 1.42%. Most of the volatile days in the last one month have been down but the most recent one was off the low at 2035. I think the lows around 1950 are much more meaningful than current levels so I will just ignore the short term price movement for now.

SBV18 – a perfect entry for me last night according to my plan. Waited for a better level to get short, the price moved up to 10.92 so I sold short with a stop at 11.03. Price went up to 11.01 then folded, leaving a candle for Thursday with a long upper shadow and a close that’s slightly in the money for my entry. Just sit and wait for the next few sessions and see if we move lower. I’d be inclined to take profits at about 10.30.

HGU18 – I’m almost willing to sell just based on Thursday’s candle given how bearish it looks in the recent context. Where would I place a stop? I’m not sure. Above the recent high from Thursday’s session makes sense but it’s too far from the price action to represent a good risk reward. Wait and see.

ZSX18 – Nothing to be added here from my perspective. Still going sideways without any decisive candles in either direction. Yet…

ZMZ18 – only back to the midpoint of Wednesday’s candle in Thursday’s price action, so even though the result of the individual session was discouraging, I don’t feel to despondent. Stop is still at 330, so just wait and see.

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