Trading journal – 9th August

DXU18 – another day of unspectacular but broadly supportive price action for the US Dollar index. I say this because after making the high on the 6th of August, the price could have sold off after Wednesday’s softer day, so to have another day of indecision would make me think twice if I was bearish. It should have sold off more quickly is my intuition, given how many times it has already tried. If the bulls were weak then we should have seen some lower lows. The two short term moving averages converging are also a good line in the sand and they are converging around 94.50. The 100 day moving average has now clearly crossed into positive territory above the 200 day moving average. Moved my stop up to my entry price for both units. The only thing that matters is capital preservation and getting big on winners. If I get out at entry on most trades then I’m only incurring transaction costs which get swamped by a big winner.

KCU18 – another pretty quick fade from coffee, the selling is not done yet. Still nothing clear in terms of structure/trade setup that I recognise so just watching and waiting for now.

ZWU18 – price is holding at higher levels, after a down day, a doji and then an open around the same level as the doji’s close. Another interesting session ahead. Adding to my current position would force my stop too close to the action so just have to watch. Options are already quite expensive because of the recent range.

CCU18 – price is down below all of the moving averages and is below the 61.8% retracement of the big move higher from February. If I had held on to wait for 3,100 I would have been in trouble, so whilst I didn’t hold on to the end I still got a reasonable chunk of the move. No real stability or pattern that I can see in the recent price action so just going to watch. The previous moves throughout 2017 did not really respect 2000 as a key price level so I don’t see any reason to do so here.

SBV18 – just another sell zone I would have thought around the short term moving average. I will put on a short with a stop above 11, say 11.08 and aim for 10 flat. Currently market trading around 10.80, might wait to see if we get up to 10.90. A stop which is 28pts wide does not seem like such a good risk/reward to me. Or maybe just go short here with a tighter stop.

HGU18 – another soft landing for copper after the most recent high at 2.8645, given it has not really retraced in the way some of the Ags have done in recent sessions, I would feel nervous getting. Too much chance of a clean out, so if I’m not short my bias is to be long and the price action is supportive of that for now.

ZSX18 – November is the month doing the most volume, so I have switched my focus to that for a price indication. Price not yet making a new high compared to the 31st of July. If today is not too weak and we stay above the low from the 6th of August I would think we are likely to get another new high in this sequence by the end of the week. If the previous high from 31st July is not broken soon then it probably marks the resistance level at which to get short. There was above average volume on 31st July which makes me think if that low gives way on a closing basis a lot of longs would turnaround and head for the exit. So my decision around what to do is based on stuff that has not happened yet, therefore I should wait before acting.

ZMZ18 – I added a second unit to my position as early trading tilted to the upside, the second unit was at 336.30. Moved my stop up to 330, wait and see where trading takes us. I’ve added my second unit about 3% above the previous price which was roughly the formula that worked for me on my biggest success so far, the cocoa trade. Initial entry was 326, so every 10 points I can try to add and see how that works.

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