Trading journal – August 12th

DXU18 – a big move higher on a huge spike in volume, clearly breaking out of the range it has been stuck in, so I added to my position, 1 more contract for a total of 3 contracts long. I will just sit on this now and see where we go, I would expect to see something similar to what we saw between 24th of April and 25th of May. That would be a move of around 4-5% which is a decent move for a currency, by which I mean we should see some correction after a move of that distance. I would be surprised if we pulled back straight away given how long this breakout has been building and the volume of the breakout (almost double the average daily volume). Moved my stop up to my average price of 95.30.

KCU18 – I’m surprised in some ways that coffee moved so little when many other commodities were getting pounded by the US Dollar strength. Although what that tells me is coffee has already been beaten up so much that it’s probably a pretty good buy around these levels. If I could get long in the mid 106 area i would do that with a stop just below the previous low, maybe 105.80. That would be tight enough to make me feel I had a good risk/reward ratio, as if things do turn higher i am guessing we might see 111.

ZWU18 – I got stopped out in the rush for the exit at 559 by the time my 560 stop loss was triggered. Lost 1 extra point and a little mixed in terms of feelings. I had been thinking to take profit but up until that US Dollar move I had thought Wheat looked like the most likely winner in terms of price action. The US dollar had stagnated and . Still it’s a lesson / reminder of the idea to take profits quickly when trading against the trend and build on winners with the trend until the end. The price now sitting at the 15 day moving average, will be interesting to see if it fades all the way back to the medium term averages or rebounds relatively quickly. Depending on how and where the price stabilises, I will look to get back on board this one.

CCU18 – still going sideways, nothing concrete for now, just watching to see how it responds to the low from the 6th of August. If it seems to be holding around that low then I might be inclined to get long with the stop just below 2000 but for now it’s still too far away to warrant any action.

SBV18 – I know short two units at an average of 0.1084 and it looks like we should be testing another new low shortly. I’m expecting the price will continue to make it’s way down towards 10 and in the meantime I prove my stop loss down to my average price.

HGU18 – copper is almost worth getting long after a relatively minor sell off on Friday’s session. Given the size of the down days on the 19th of June, the 5th of July, the 19th of July and the first of August, I actually think the fact that it managed to hold to a less than one percent loss was a good performance. Primarily because with the backdrop of a much stronger US dollar it would have been an easy to dump all commodities.

ZSX18 – soybeans got absolutely pummeled on high volume and so I’ll probably expect the price to push down below 820 in the next couple of days otherwise that would be a very interesting support level. The moving soybeans was disproportionately large compared to the US dollar strength so clearly there were a lot of people dumping their positions.

ZMZ18 – the price is right down on the previous support level for soybean at 324 so it provides another good opportunity to get long but I think my appetite for doing so it’s probably diminished given I expect the US dollar will continue to rise from here and there was large volume on the sell off perhaps double the normal volume.

ZOZ18 – could be a great opportunity to sell oats at current levels after the price ran up from 235 to just under 280. The most recent 5 sessions looking like a false break above the 270 level. The move is also consistent with a false break in a downtrend where the price moved 6% through the 200 day moving average and then failed. So I’m going short if I can catch the price around 270 to 272 with a stop at 278.

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