Trading Journal – 16th August

DXU18 – Price action on Wednesday was negative for the US dollar and even though the range was relatively contained perhaps it was a warning sign that prices might be headed back towards the 15 day moving average. So far the prices have tried to sell off in the Thursday session but it is only slightly down at current levels after a small rally. My stop is currently at 96, I am just thinking whether to split up my stop so that I have 3 contracts at current levels and then one contract at my original average. I’m actually not sure what effect selling will have one way average price as calculated by Interactive Brokers. I would be disappointed if I let my profits which are currently about 3.5k fall to 1k. I still feel like there’s a lot of risk on the table but if Trump were to do some random thing which is highly likely then it might turn things around in near-term sentiment. That would be damaging for my trade in fact I probably would be in critical loss. So all signs point to the exit on most of my risk.

GCZ18 – Gold is getting battered and there doesn’t seem to be much to do here aside from sell. I still can’t understand why, given all the things that are in gold’s favour aside from the strength of the US dollar. Clearly that is important given it is priced in US dollars, however all of the other factors going on suggest that should be neutralized or outweighed by the fact that Gold has traditionally been seen as an inflation hedge, a safe haven flight to quality product and with a current geopolitical backdrop I’m just surprised that it is not attracting more buyers. However the price is always right and for now it is only heading in one direction.

KCU18 – After I posted it on the 18th of March both on Elite trader and my previous blog Not Just Inflation that I felt coffee was going to get sucked down towards 111 from 120 and it’s now sitting at 105, I’ve really missed the whole boat with this trade. Oh well nothing to do except go out there and find some more trades. You would almost have to assume that it’s going to be a big bounce if we are able to reach 100 but at the moment it’s just slowly grinding lower instead of making a big dramatic move. For me it’s all about waiting till we get to that level and I just don’t think we are within striking distance of that level in one session, have to wait until tomorrow

ZWU18 – It definitely looks to me that wheat is stabilizing and I’m expecting it to go hire from him so I’m going to get long again with a stop at 524. I’ll actually need to use the references from the December contract with playing a similar pricing pattern to September. Equivalent would be going long at current levels around 558 with a stop below 550. Only having a 9 point stop is quite comfortable for me in terms of risk / reward as I’m guessing will probably head up towards 600 sometime in the next couple of weeks.

CCZ18 – It’s definitely possible Cocoa might be moving lower but it’s quite a narrow stable range for now at 2100 to 2200 so I’m just thinking I need to wait for a better level to get in either at the top or the bottom of the range as it’s stuck right in the middle.

SBV18 – 15 day moving average is currently around 10.63 so we might see the price rally up towards that level but for now it’s still relatively weak and I would expect that we all get down towards 10.10 in the next one week at which point i will be taking profit.

HGU18 – The price is bouncing back a little bit in copper so whilst I’ll be very surprised if we can make it out through the previous support which is now resistance, we might see the price move back up towards 2.70. I would probably be very happy to go short around 2.68 or maybe even 2.67 2.71 which is just relying on that resistance to hold expecting the price will move much lower. Going short at current levels of 2.60 is just too much of a risk between where I am and where the stop is.

ZSX18 – I’m still impressed by the strength of soybeans and I am caught between the longer trend from the 16th of July vs the short term trend from the 10th of August. The one the one mentioned first is an uptrend, the short term trend on the 10th of August is a downtrending consolidation pattern and then stepping back too a much longer term view the trend is down from the 28th of May. That level of indecision and given the price has not surpassed the midpoint of the big negative candle from the 10th of August I’m just going to watch and wait for a set up where there are more factors in my favour.

ZMZ18 – Soybean meal seems to be much more bullish from my perspective and I’m keen to go long again at 335 with a stop at 329 so we will see how it goes. I think it is mainly the speed with which has bounced back from many of the setbacks recently that has been most convinced this could be going another 30 or 50 points.

ZOZ18 – Most of my research and investigation into penetration of the 200 day moving average tells me this in all likelihood is due to failed as the 200 day moving average is sloped too steeply against it. The depth of the penetration on the break being less than 6% also tells me that it will probably fail. I’m still short after getting lucky on the entry. It more or less sold off straight from that level around 267. I won’t add yet as there’s still a chance it will come back for another bite before the bulls give up.

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