Trading journal – 20th August

DXU18 – It was a pretty strong beat up on the US dollar on the Friday session in which I got stopped out at 96 even. Possibly to be expected after the rejection just under 97 on Wednesday the 15th of August. It means I only take 41 points on four contracts, after being up at 96.75 when I added the 4th unit. It was a lot of work/waiting for only $1,600. Still it’s better to have so money in the bank than nothing, so I take that and move on.

GCZ18 – I think gold is providing a really interesting dynamic the last couple of days especially the session on the 16th of August where we saw another huge day of volume but we were left with a doji candle with a long lower shadow. The price has since rallied. I can’t really say anything based on the two candles since however I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the price move higher from here in the short term.

KCZ18 – Still trending down and I expect to test 100 over the coming weeks but I don’t really want to get short at these levels because it’s moved a little far away from the 15 day moving average. Wait for the price to move somewhere I feel comfortable taking in action.

ZWZ18 – I think this setup all looks positive for a week so I’m just going to sit on this for now. Expect a test of 600 sometime in the next week ahead of which I will probably take profit. I think wheat has been a difficult one to call, responding to some indicators but nothing that I can really tell is consistent aside from seeing that it has increased in volatility and also made a sequence of mostly higher Highs from the low in mid-December 2017. Using an undefined volatility measure from barchart.com which prices volatility for the 14 previous sessions in terms of the futures contract price, so for example with wheat the historical volatility has moved from single digits in price terms of around 8 or 9 cents per bushel to a recent high in July of 40 cents per bushel. Just looking at a chart and it’s very imperfect using my eyes but low points in volatility especially into the single digits relative to the price of wheat have provided good buying opportunities and spikes in volatility about 30 have provided good selling opportunities. These two numbers would equate to moving from 1% volatility on the low side up to about 8% volatility on the high side relative to the price of a futures contract. I’ll be interested to compare the same number on the price of cocoa futures. Especially since I have an example of a big run-up in price.

CCZ18 – When I look at taking a trade on the top side of the recent range in Cocoa I get a little nervous so I think I’m just going to leave that one alone for now. I feel like I would be a bit more comfortable taking one off the bottom of the range. But even that for some reason I am a little bit gun shy.

SBV18 – I could have left my stop a little bit higher and I would have made a bit of extra money with the price closing at 10.18 on Friday session. But I just wasn’t that confident and I’d already booked about 1000 dollars in profits and I’m happy to have my stop hit and not give up too much on the down side.

HGU18 – Copper is getting pretty close to the top of the area where it broke down from before and so I’d expect it to probably sell off again from this level or between here and 2.68. If I can get a sell order in somewhere around 2.67 that would be a sweet spot for me as I think people will probably get back on the short wagon soon. I think I could have a stop just above 2.69.

ZSX18 – Soybeans are hanging on just about the 900 level which the price has not been able to sustain a meaningful break above since it drops below this level in late June it might be good for 50 points on the upside but it’s not really something that jumps out at me right now. Just going to watch it for today.

ZMZ18 – Soybean meal seems to be building into a triangle formation with a topside of 340 still intact for now and a series of lows since the 13th of August that has gradually been higher almost every session. It’s not really shown an ability to break out yet but I would be surprised if it crossed over the 200 day moving average in this fashion without attempting to retake the high ground. I don’t necessarily expect it to stay above the 200 day moving average but certainly to attempt another run before any sell off.

ZOZ18 – I certainly could be wrong on this one, I did not take profit on the drop down and the price has since rallied in the last two sessions back towards my entry price. I’m probably less confident now that a false break has been staged, however I’m still game enough to wait and see.

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