Trading journal – 27th August

DXU18 – the US dollar index is again hovering just above the 40 day moving average after trying to bounce off on Friday and then Monday. It did do this quite a bit through late July so perhaps just the Market taking a breather after the assault on 97 failed. I’d say it’s actually quite a good level to take some risk because it is so close to that average which has provided support previously.

GCZ18 – gold could be a good sell around 1228 where the 40 day average currently sits. But I’m not doing anything at the moment, just not enough there for me.

KCZ18 – coffee had a meaningful bounce off the 100 level and I’m ruing the missed opportunity. Not sure there is any action to take right now but hopefully there will be another test of the 100 level. It’s been too long a downtrend to get long without a tight stop. I think there will be a lot of people that have been waiting for this level. The rally of 3% could literally just be people taking profit on their short positions , so I wouldn’t be surprised for the bears to try once more and take out 100.

ZWZ18 – the price of wheat is heading back towards the 200 day moving average which is still edging higher but not that close to the 200 day moving average which is at 523 today.

CCZ18 – Cocoa continues to build for a more meaningful break of a 200 day moving average. I’m almost inclined to go long and see where the pop takes us. I like the way it’s had a consolidation and has slowly built up towards the 200 day moving average in a steady manner.

SBV18 – I found out my issue on Friday night with Interactive Brokers was actually my own fault for not being able to calculate the right entry price for my stop. I was out by a decimal place (!). Sugar feels like it could go either way at the moment so for me that means do nothing.

HGU18 – copper looks like it’s trying to move a little bit higher but definitely still seems quite weak and again is trading the inverse of the US dollar index. Both of these aspects make me too nervous to put on a trade at this time.

ZSX18 – soybeans have broken the bottom of the recent support level at 8:50 and now look to be heading quite a bit lower. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them move towards 825. I could put on a short sell order here with a stop at 851 and a Target at 826 and still get roughly at 2 to 1 pay off. Actually that’s an exaggeration it’s not even two to one. Bad risk / reward.

ZMZ18 – I got short soybean meal at 317 on the break down and that’s in the money at the moment so I’m going to take profit on that one.

ZOZ18 – oats seem to be right at an inflection point. It looks like they’re struggling to stay above the short-term moving average but at the same time there has been a series of higher lows on the move from 260.

RSX18 – looks like you just tried to make a move through the 200 day moving average which was almost flat but it failed both times and is now dropping back down towards 490 the 61.8 percent retracement comes in at about 495 and the price is already down at 494. no real trade set up for me here so just going to see what happens.

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