DXU18 – The US dollar index has dropped below the 40 day moving average which has been good support throughout most of the run up to 97. It is only under this level by a small way though and has previously been below by a similar amount before it went on and rallied again so I’m not too despondent just yet but certainly will be interesting to see how Tuesday’s session goes.
GCZ18 – Volume has started to tail off as this mini rally continues in gold towards the 40 day moving average at 1227. Where it is definitely looking like that could be a good place to sell house between there and 1233. I’ll need to check where I remember seeing 1175 as a major level but perhaps this could all just be evidence of that level holding. I’m sure we will find out in the next couple of days how it responds to that level.
KCZ18 – Coffee has indeed rallied up towards the shorter term moving average but given it’s recent record since late May I’ll be very interested to see if there’s any more strength in the rally. You would expect a fairly decent bounce after coming to such a major level as 100, and I suppose I’m just waiting to see because this will really tell us how strong the rally is. If we stall here then we’ll be heading back down towards 100 pretty quickly I would think and probably I stronger test of that level.
ZWZ18 – Which is currently holding just above the 200 day moving average so perhaps there’s another rally June from this level up to 545. I have gone long at 527.25 with a stop at 522. Take profit target is 542.
CCZ18 – Cocoa looks like it might be a sell at these levels, seems to be fading back towards the 40 day moving average. I am going to go short with a stop at 2350. The market is at 2342.
SBV18 – Sugar still bouncing for now from the 10 level almost in concert with coffee as it bounced from the 100 level. Coincidentally both are also trading in sync with the US dollar sell off. Excluding any fundamentals changing on either commodity I would probably expect the dynamics of the US dollar to determine where the next couple of days goes. Given the strength of the trend in the US dollar I’m probably leaning towards the US dollar going higher again or perhaps sideways for a little while. That would probably mean coffee and sugar are in a sell zone at the moment. I’m not really confident either way so I’m just going to sit on the fence and perhaps take action on a secondary play.
HGU18 – High grade copper continues to rally and is currently trading at 2.7270 suggesting it is comfortably through the previous low from the 19th of July. Does that mean we are heading for the next interim High from the 26th of July a 2.8645? I’m not that confident that will happen so I’m just going to watch it for now because I don’t think I have a good location to put a stop that ensures a good risk reward.
ZSX18 – Soybeans look like they could fall away pretty quickly here I think I’m going to put in a sell order at market currently 847 with a buy stop at 850.
ZMZ18 – Soybean meal has held just around my take profit level and I’m currently flat but I’m just watching in case there’s a rally back up to 3:20 to confirm the old support as new resistance.
ZOZ18 – I could have been a bit more patient with oats given I was short from 267 and moved my stop up at 264 but just have to wait for another opportunity.
RSX18 – Canola is a hard one to read as the price action in the last 5 sessions has come very far but I just wonder whether it’s come too far in a short space of time and might rally back up towards 500 from here. Doesn’t feel like a good level to take action from so I’m just going to sit and watch this one unfold.