Trading journal – 29th August

DXU18 – the US dollar has again shown indecisiveness around the 40 day moving average and I suspect from here we might see some more buying again. Whilst it’s impossible to read into the tea leaves of Trump’s latest cup of tea, if risk aversion increases then people will go long US dollars and if this all gets resolved then we should see interest rates continue to normalise and again people buy US dollars. In short I’ll be quite surprised if we don’t just go sideways for another few days or few weeks and then have another go at 97. Where is a good place to put a stop ? I’m not sure. What I really want to see is another couple of days price action consolidating around these levels before I feel confident that my thesis is correct.
GCZ18 – So given my thesis around the US dollar index and that gold has been trading inverse to the US dollar index then I should be expecting gold to head lower. Watch and wait, I’m not totally convinced by the price action just yet.
KCZ18 – that was a pretty quick rejection for coffee from that short term moving average and to be honest I’m surprised how quickly it was shut down. So from here I expect we head back towards 100. Is this a good place to put on a short position ? not for me. As I write the shorter term moving average is that 105 and the market is currently trading around 103.30 so it’s just too far for me to feel good about taking an action.
ZWZ18 – I got stopped out on this one as well. Although the price does look like it’s holding around these levels at the open of today’s session. I’m almost tempted to have another go at this as I think the price price might rise to 540 but it’s a bit far away from my stop to feel like I’m not throwing good money after bad. So I’m just going to watch.
CCZ18 – got stopped out on this one last night. This one is also looking bearish and I think I was right but similar to the wheat trade I’m just a bit far away from my stop now so I’ll probably just watch and see if something favourable develops for me to get in.
SBV18 – sugar feels like it could be headed much lower or at least back to the big figure very soon to see what the buying interest is like at that level. Similar to coffee I’m surprised how quickly the bounce wore out.
HGU18 – when asking myself has Copper failed, which I cannot answer definitively, I flip it around and think if I was long, does this look bullish? in a tentative way I would say yes. Although I would be a little nervous again that it had run out of steam so quickly. So all that to me suggests no action required here.
ZSX18 – I took profit on this one at 834. Watch and wait for a little bit.
ZMZ18 – Soybean meal continued to fall away today. Not in any particular buy or sell zone for me now.
ZOZ18 – quite an interesting sequence of candles on the oats chart in the last four sessions. The top having being made just under 270 and then falling away quite aggressively before posting the start of what looks like a lower tail. Maybe we see another move up to 260 before someone turns out the lights on this one.
RSX18 – Canola definitely looks to be finding some buying ahead of the recent low from the 16th of July and then another one on the 24th of July. I feel like at some point in the next little while we will get a test of 500 again. It may take a week or two weeks to get up there but I’ll be surprised if this one is done yet. I think the more likely outcome is a rally up to the 500 area and then the bears will have acquired some more ammunition for short selling.

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