Trading Journal – 30th August

DXU18 – The price action in the US dollar index on Wednesday was slightly bearish but a little bit of a nothing for me – the range wasn’t below the previous days range and not a lot of volatility.

GCZ18 – Similar to the US dollar index this is a bit of a nothing day for me in terms of picking directions so just going to watch and wait.

KCZ18 – Coffee is definitely looking like rubbish and I would expect maybe in the next two sessions we head down towards 100. I would like to get short but I would not feel comfortable unless my stop was a above the 15 day moving average, which is too far away and so not a good risk reward.

ZWZ18 – Wheat posted a massive up day, bouncing off the 200 day moving average on big volume and I think i’m going to go long i’m just not sure whether to wait for it to come back to the midpoint of the candle from Wednesday or go long near the top (at current market). I will probably wait to see where the initial price action is in the Thursday session but it looks quite bullish.

CCZ18 – I am a little surprised that Cocoa rallied in yesterday’s session. I was probably expecting more of a drop off so this might actually be building into something larger to the upside. I’m going to wait for the next candle before making any decisions as I think we will probably either see a consolidation candle around current levels or it will drop. If it holds around current levels I’m probably going to go long but if it has a drop then i’ll be looking to go short for maybe 100 points on the back of that.

SBV18 – Similar to coffee which seem to be trading in tandem at the moment, has had another day of weak consolidation and I would expect I move back towards the big figure in the next day or so. Probably only the US dollar index weakness that is keeping the price at these levels for now.

HGU18 – Copper is looking a little bit weak to me although I should give it credit for fighting back above the previous low at 2.6849. I don’t think it’s a good situation to take action because the break below was relatively soft but honestly that still indicates weakness so I think better to wait. The spot month has also moved to December.

ZSX18 – There was an attempted rally in soybeans on Wednesday however that has failed and we are still sitting near the previous lows from mid July. There’s not really enough conclusive evidence to go short or long for me, so I’m just going to watch until I see something definitive either in consolidation or a break lower.

ZMZ18 – Unsurprisingly a similar pattern in soybean meal to soybeans but the break lower in this case has already been made. Probably thinking there might be a small reaction at these levels given the tendency for meal to trade in sync with soybeans and soybean seems to be at a support level. If there was a small rally from meal at the moment then I’ll be looking to get short as that approached 320.

ZOZ18 – A huge negative signal on oats overnight with the price posting a massive upper tail before closing back below the 200 day moving average. This is confirming a false break which started on the 6th of August and now I would expect the bears to shut the gate and the price to move back down towards 240.

RSX18 – I think canola is going to be a buy at these levels with a rally up to 500 likely in the near term I think. The market is currently at 491 and I’ve been thinking to put a stop somewhere around 488 although I prefer to be below the most recent low. I need to have a think about this and assess the best way to get in.

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