Trading Journal – 31st August

DXU18 – US dollar index is holding just below the 40 day moving averages it seems to have done previously so from here I’m starting to think it’s probably a by and with the 100 day moving average creeping up to 93.60 this could be a good area to buy. I would probably like to see one more day of consolidating price action and make sure that there’s not a 40 or 50 Point drop in the offing.

GCZ18 – Gold is still trading the inverse of the US dollar index so I would expected to head Lower from here.

KCZ18 – I’m almost inclined to characterise Thursday’s price action as bullish given it has quite quickly rejected the sellers and stayed above 100. Having said that I wouldn’t want to get long into this downtrend from anywhere except close to 100 just because it’s a key level and I think a good place to set your risk reward. So no action for me on this one for now.

ZWZ18 – Some very interesting price action on weight during Thursday session with the price having come back towards the midpoint of the green candle from Wednesday. I think this is a good place to go long so I’m going to buy it market which is around 535 and to stop at maybe 528 which would be below the low of Thursday’s session as this looks like it might be preparing for another move up towards 575.

CCZ18 – In the end Cocoa was rejected from the 200 day moving average and I feel it’s probably a fairly good bet that it’s heading back down towards 2150 I would think. I’m planning to sell at 2275 (current market) and stop at 2320.

SBV18 – Sugar may finally be disconnecting it’s synchronisation with coffee as the price moved more strongly up yesterday. I think I’m going to wait for now because there are a lot of hurdles to clear before sugar proves that the downtrend is over.

HGU18 – Like gold, copper is just trading the universe of US dollar index and I certainly get the feeling that the price might fall away from here. So I think I’m going to get short around the current market with a stop at 2.74.

ZSX18 – Soybeans really not looking good at 831 right down near the bottom of the range I think there could be a move down towards 800 shortly. I’m not sure whether it’s worth waiting for the price to rally back up into the 840 area before trying to get short with a stop above 850. It’s the better risk-reward trade but i’m not sure the price is going to get there.

ZMZ18 – The price continues to trade lower and I’ll be interested to see what the response is to the 300 level. There was a year long bottom established from mid 2015 to the end of the first quarter 2016 at the $300 so it’s definitely something Traders will reference. There was another attempt to push below 300 in September 2014 which failed at 280 and then touched off another rally up towards 400. I’ll be keeping my eyes open.

ZOZ18 – Oats are definitely getting punished at the moment and probably a good sell at these levels with another big hit taken by the bears on Thursday. The market is currently trading at 247 and we could probably expect a stock to be somewhere around 251. I will wait to see where the market opens and adjust my entries/stops from there.

RSX18 – It turns out canola was a buy however I didn’t act so it’s not really at any good location for me now. Just have to wait for another opportunity.

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