Trading Journal – 3rd September

DXU18 –  In a classical run I would expect the rhythm of the price action to see the Dollar index to rise from here, however I’m not that confident. It is a higher low compared to the last week from July. In previous drops the 40 day moving average has been good support so perhaps now is a good time to buy with the stop just below 95. Maybe I’ll stop at 94.90 so it’s 20 points on the down side. The price looks to have formed a bottom just underneath the 40 day moving average and now pushing higher again, the price is also not dipped below the midpoint of the major candle from the 14th of June which was around 93.80.
GCZ18 – Do I feel as confident about gold going lower as I do about the US dollar going higher? Not really. If I was just to look at a chart and pick 2 outright directions without the need for them to be inverted I would say I think gold is maybe going a bit higher and the US dollar might be going a little bit higher in the short term. If I was to say which of the trends would be more dominant at the moment I would say the US dollar is dominating gold rather than the other way around. I don’t think many people are prioritising gold over the US dollar. If I was going to take a trade on either the US dollar or gold I would pick the US dollar.
KCZ18 – With the US dollar possibly likely to strengthen and coffee having made a short term high on the 27th of August, now is probably a good time to sell in expectation down towards 100 again. So I’ll be looking to place my stop just above the high already made in today’s session which is 103.30 with a Target at 100. The current price is around 101.80 so when I think about that I’m risking around 150 points to make 180 points which is a pretty poor risk reward ratio so I think I’ll cancel that idea.
ZWZ18 – The price of wheat has been moving higher through today session although it’s not comprehensive yet. Three of the moving averages all converge right at the current price point so the chart is looking a little bit congested. Nothing to do from here for me it is particular set up just yet.
CCZ18 – Coco also presenting a very interesting picture in terms of the price action. After a rallying all the way from 2100 the price has touched 2400 but failed to break through the 200 day moving average. I would have expected the price to follow a pretty quickly from here but it has not done so and rebounded up to the area just below the open from Friday’s session. I’m a little bit surprised by that and I think because of that confusion I’m not willing to take a position.
SBV18 – Sugar is looking a little bit positive and based on the recent history that’s probably a good reason to sell it especially since the 40 day moving average has been a good sell zone historically. Selling at market is around 10.60 and the 40 day moving average is at 10.72. So it’s a pretty tight risk reward with a downside Target close to 10. I think I’m going to take this one.
HGU18 – I think copper is looking like a much softer target at the moment then gold is so I think I’m going to go short copper with a target down around 2.55 and a stop at 2.67.
ZSX18 –  Again soybeans look to have been good buying around the 826 although I am a little surprised by the rally. Nothing to do for me now.
ZMZ18 – I’m hoping we will get a rally from soybean meal up into the 320 area and I’ll be able to get short somewhere between 320-324. If I go long now I could probably go long at market but it’s already trading at 309. And my stop would need to be at 302. Which is a stop of 7 points for a target of 12 or 13 points maybe, just not enough to warrant the risk for my liking.
ZOZ18 – Some very strange price action in oats not giving me a clear indication either way so I’ll just watch for developments.
RSX18 – Some very negative price action in canola and I fully expected the price to push on from here but it’s got up to 500 and then retraced back to 495. I’m not sure what we going to see next but if you were just going on today’s candle so far then we might be looking at 485 as the next stop.

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