Trading Journal – 6th September

DXU18 – The US dollar index is definitely looking weekend today and that was a very meek rally over the last four sessions. From here the next stop could be 93.91 which is the 100 day moving average today. It’s probably a sell from here but I’m going to see if there’s other better opportunities I can allocate my money to.

GCZ18 – Looking at Gold it’s seeming to find support at these levels and maybe building higher. I feel like there’s a bit of momentum at the moment and it’s probably worth a shot to go long. If I put a long order in at 1210 I would probably have an exit order at 1200.

KCZ18 – The last 2 candles say coffee is going higher but the last 50 say it’s going lower. I’m not near any good risk / reward levels so i’m just going to wait for a better opportunity, by which I mean more clearly defined.

ZWZ18 – Wheat is looking pretty negative and I would expect that from here maybe we see 500 again. Of course it might just be a temporary dip below and we bounce higher but the last 20 sessions don’t suggest that to me.

CCZ18 – This was a missed opportunity last night I just got two greedy with my target and my take profit did not get hit. The price reversed and I would have guess from here that we head back down towards 2200. The bigger question is am I willing to take a position on it? Not sure. I think the combination of mixed signals make it almost a 50/50 bet as to which way it goes. So in that case the best course of action is not to get involved.

SBV18 – A pretty disappointing result last night with the stop on my sugar trade completely wrong. It was at 1.1071 instead of 0.1071 and the price blew all the way past my intended stop to 0.1096 , resulting in a loss of $350 which is as yet unrealized because the market is closed. Another lesson for me to check and I suppose the best benefit is it may have cost me a lot more than I wanted but at least the total amount is only a small percentage of my account . The biggest disappointment is how much harder it will make achieving my $1000 Target this week. I suppose the main thing I can do is allow for the fact that I’ve made mistake and adjust my Target accordingly. Final update is I put a stop at 0.1093 and the market drifted back down, I moved my stop closer to 0.1083 and I got hit there. So final USD loss was -264.

HGU18 – Copper also looks to have formed a second bottom. Twice it has dipped down to 2.55 and now it seems to be working it’s way back up towards 2.74. Again I feel I’m quite far from a good risk reward opportunity so I will not go long from here.

ZSX18 – Soybeans are not looking great but at the same time they’re also a little bit in no mans land so I’m just going to wait for them to get in a recognised formation.

ZMZ18 – Soybean meal is already looking weak in spite of only having a rally from 304 to 315. If it did they are from here I wouldn’t be surprised but again it’s not a good setup in terms of risk reward. I think one thing keeping a daily trading journal is good for is that it helps you clarify what’s happening repeatedly and almost puts it in your face so you hear your own thoughts/logic.

ZOZ18 – Oats an interesting candidate for a trade at the moment. They rallied all the way to the high at 280 before selling off to 245. Yesterday’s session looked very negative but today it’s opened higher and is trading up as well. Will we get another running towards 255? It certainly feels like it from here but that’s only 6 points away the current market price of 249. So I could really only have a stop of 247 for this one to make sense.

RSX18 – Canola has had a good bounce from the 487 level, which means it’s held a higher low then the two previous lows at 485 in mid to late July. It’s starting to look like it’s topping out around 500, so again it’s a case of two prevalent themes in the last few months, the sequence of sharp sell offs from early July to the 16th of July and then from 21st of August to the 28th of August. These two drops have been interrupted by slow steady rallies higher. If I step back to the 1 year chart then I can see that an important low was made at the end of December around the 490 level. It has tried to go below that level three times now and has failed each time. I also have to keep in mind that there was a strong bullish run up to 528 and now there’s been a series of corrections back down to 490. I think if I was going to pick one trade out of this scenario it would probably be waiting to see if it drops down to 490 again then held at that level for a couple of sessions and I would buy with a stop just below the most recent low.

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