Trading Journal – 17th September

DXZ18 – The US dollar index is coming very close to the 100 day moving average. After a relatively long sideways consolidation and after failing to hold above 96.50 it still did not sell very quickly which I would think is an encouraging move so if we get any closer to the 100 day moving average then I will be inclined to buy.

GCZ18 – Gold is holding in there for the moment but it really does not look that strong. No recognisable pattern for me so I’m just going to watch for now.

KCZ18 – It’s looking bad for coffee and I’m thinking to sell from here and see where this goes with the ultimate aim of buying a bounce back above 100 on the return.

ZWZ18 – I think my concern with wheat is that after having made a sequence of higher Highs, this long decline may not stop at 500. That would weaken the bullish outlook significantly. It has bounced for now but not sure what is next. If the short term pattern repeat then after this bounce we should see another three days or so of selling. I cannot tell which pattern is going to dominate in the short term so I’m just going to watch until something more obvious appears

CCZ18 – A big punch in the guts for anyone trying to get long Cocoa. I’m guessing it is heading towards 2100 again. If we got a rally towards the midpoint of the large negative candle from Friday then I would be willing to get short.

SBV18 – After attempting to push through the 100 day moving average sugar failed on Friday. The market was already down 3% when I went short at 11.37. I mean the money has small amount at the moment but I’m expecting will probably resume the down trend shortly.

HGZ18 – It seems to be a base forming around 2.60 which is holding for now but I’m not that optimistic so we’ll just wait and see.

ZSX18 – So beans are right down towards the bottom of the reason range and it’s not looking good but the price hasn’t broken lower yet so have to wait before making any move on the short side.

ZMZ18 – Soybean Meal is looking soft and I would not be surprised if we have it trading around 302 shortly.

ZOZ18 – The price has collapsed all the way back to 240, but the moving averages are turning, so I think we will see a rally from these levels of towards 270 or 280 again. There was a lot of buying consolidation between 233 and 240 previously.

RSX18 – Canola is right at the support of the trendline using the lows from the 16th of July, 24th of July and the 29th of August. I’m quite concerned however that the most recent rally was very weak and found push through 500. Stepping back to larger time frames this could go either way.

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