Trading journal – 18th September

DXZ18 – The US dollar index is looking like it might go lower from here although it is still holding above the 94 level. The second thing to consider is that the 100 day moving average is just below the price at the moment so will find out how strong the trend is.

GCZ18 – Quite a disappointing rally from gold on Monday given that the US dollar seems to be showing more weakness now. I would have thought the gains would start to come in easily for gold which has been sold quite heavily.

KCZ18 – Last night was a little frustrating because I got short at 0.9910 then stopped out at 0.9940 before the price dropped all the way down to 97.30. What can I take out of last night? I think the key point was the price moved below the previous low in a long established downtrend and perhaps I could have had a wider stop. I think the other problem in this situation is that I don’t have a downside Target because it’s just dropping into fresh air.

ZWZ18 – Wheat could be headed all the way back towards 475, the same pattern might be about to repeat. Again.

CCZ18 – Terrible look for cocoa yesterday after strong selling on Friday and then a big display of weakness on Monday. I’m going to get short on this one at the open today.

SBV18 – Sugar was better for me and I added a second unit at 0.1091. Things are not looking good in price terms, which is good for my short position. Although the open interest is running low as the contract roll approaches.

HGZ18 – The bears have been unable to take out the downside and 2.60 but the bulls look like they are starting to lose momentum defending that same level. I suspect shortly that we will see another break to the downside so this is probably not a bad opportunity to sell .

ZSX18 – Soybeans could be about to make a big break lower and I will probably get short on this one as well.

ZMZ18 – Price looks like it certainly heading towards 303 the question is will we try to break below 300? I guess we probably will at some point but for now I’m just going to watch.

ZOZ18 – It looks like oats might be bouncing from here after a big hammer candle at the bottom of a long downtrend with the possible target up at 254.

RSX18 – nothing on this for me at the moment. Waiting for the price to approach the lows.

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