DXZ18 – stopped out at 93.90. the high was 93.93. It doesn’t look like it is going higher at this stage although it has not dipped that far below the 100 DMA. The orice is still below the midpoint of the negative candle from Thursday. That is the point which would have made sense to have my stop above, say 3/4 of the way up the candle rather than at/just below half way. Taking too little time to prepare. Rushing into trades. I need to put together a pre-trade checklist. I suppose part of that is the work I am already doing by collecting historical statistics on my trades. So I know what priority to put on my filters.
GCZ18 – Long gold at 1211. Stop at 1198. I got stopped out at 1198, the overnight low was 1196. Trading against the trend in both the cases (Gold and DXY). Does not look that positive but the bigger mistake was having a stop inside the middle of the range without a clear signal of a breakout. My problem was that I was actually anticipating the break out instead of waiting for it to happen which is a very expensive habit.. There was something about disconnect overnight between US dollar index and gold. What I mean by that is the direction was inverse as expected but the I think there was a corresponding confirmation in the US dollar index that it will be heading lower and at the same time gold rally to the bottom of the recent range on higher than average volume.
KCZ18 – old resistance as new support? I’m unsure, it could go either way and with no underlying bias (strong downtrend compared to major target achieved).
ZWZ18 – based on the last 2 sessions idea day wheat is a buy. The price seems unwilling to give up just yet on a positive outcome. I’d like to go long around 518 and have a stop reasonably close behind.
CCZ18 – I’d think we drift down from here to 2100. Wait to find a bottom around there then go long.
SBV18 – whilst I am biased being short the last few sessions make me think a negative outcome is more likely than a positive one. 6 trading days to go and I think most of the short trades would have sold into the correction/ bounce off 10 cents.
HGZ18 – massive positive signal from copper yesterday, although I’m not sure how long it will last given the 100 day moving average looms overhead at 2.91. Also the volume on this really had been relatively small.
ZSX18 – a very interesting sequence in the last two days with the price rallying rapidly up to 850 then stalling.
ZMZ18 – a lower high and I’m expecting follow through now of the price down to 303, the previous low. Is it a good risk reward? No. Pass.
ZOZ18 – looks like a bad call on oats, the last two candles were bullish so I’ll let my stop get hit.
RSX18 – canola also looks like it is going higher. No trade for me though.