Trading Journal – 5th October

DXZ18 – the US dollar is approaching 96, momentum is strong and I would expect it moves up towards that level in the next few days with Mike Pence not helping.

GCZ18 – the 15 and 40 DMA’s have converged and gold is not looking strong under the pressure of both averages. You would hope it can push through from here soon otherwise the downtrend could resume in a strong way.

KCZ18 – a very interesting sequence after what i thought was a really strong breakout signal and then a reversal candle which I was almost ready to put a short position on. since then it has held it’s position and I’m unsure what to do. Watch and wait.

ZWZ18 – wheat looks like it might go higher from here, a higher low on 1st October and relative stability in the recent price moves. Historical vol is also coming to the low end of the range.

CCZ18 – cocoa looking like it might head lower, a negative candle posted on Thursday. Very weak bounce from the 2000 level. Previous low was around 1850, could be a short term target.

SBH19 – sugar is again at the crossroads of the 100 DMA. more likely than not the price should fall away from here.

HGZ18 – looking more negative now for copper, a failed move to the upside and now possibly drifting lower. I would expect the momentum of Trump and Pence to increase perceptions of instability and selling to overwhelm this little rally.

ZSX18 – hard to believe a deal will be reached in the short term with China after Pence again inflamed the situation. He might be talking up the mid-term elections but China won’t turn the other cheek.

ZMZ18 – failing to push through the previous high and no optimism about the short term outcome for Soybean Meal.

ZOZ18 – massive bullish candle for Oats, the middle of the candle is around 281 so that would be my ‘low risk’ place to buy. If it retraced all the way to the open of that bullish candle then I’d be thinking it’s a false break.

RSX18 – another fail at 500 and i’d be leaning more towards price dropping from here. Either way I’m just watching from here.

DYZ18 – a big range in the DAX last couple of days, could be interpreted as the bulls fighting back but we’ll only know if the momentum is giving way to a bear market when we hold below 12,000. I’ve got two units short at the moment, so my job for now is just to not add any more risk until the price has sold off and then rallied again. That next rally will be the point to sell.

SIZ18 – sit and wait on this for now, it tried to go through 15 then failed. I got part of that, now waiting for the next trend.

VIV18 – price might be increasing, certainly it seems like the politicians are helping. watch and wait for now, bearing in mind decay will revert the price lower.

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