Trading Journal – 26th October

DXZ18 – the US dollar index is right at the previous high. This will be telling. A failure from here and some ‘risk on’ movements will likely see the dollar tank but there are two supportive factors at the moment. The market meltdown is being driven by the higher US interest rates, which is dollar supportive and the flight to quality during risk off phases is also US Dollar supportive. So It’s an environment which should see the Dollar perform strongly regardless.

GCZ18 – gold does appear to be building towards a move higher. A very slow and steady move higher with some good volume days along the way. This could move up to 1289 where the 200 DMA is waiting. I am going long (again).

KCZ18 – interesting that coffee is still pushing higher in spite of the stronger US dollar. Both are only marginal amounts but the fact that the price has not retraced quickly to lower levels has surprised me, it is supportive for higher prices if it continues to hold.

ZWZ18 – wheat is looking increasingly negative, it will need to be a strong bounce from here to turn the moving averages higher. Given the trader-ism that the range tends to hold 90% of the time I would expect the price to revert shortly. If the US dollar continues to push higher wheat appears weak enough to go lower.

CCZ18 – still can’t tell on cocoa, not taking any action. Similar to the other softs (coffee and sugar) it seems to be building for a move higher.

SBH19 – a doji at the end of a long run should suggest a reversal. I’m still not convinced just because so many times in the history of sugar prices when i checked, a strongly downward sloping 200 DMA does not turn higher, a false break is just made. This actually presents a good risk reward. I’m doing everything in line with my research and training if i sell here, so that’s what I’m going to do.

HGZ18 – downtrending channel, nothing for me right now.

ZSX18 – in no man’s land. nothing for me here.

ZMZ18 – nothing for me here.

ZOZ18 – might rally back from the most recent low but not anywhere for me right now.

RSX18 – a doji and then a bounce. probably not a bad buy at current levels for a rally back up to 493 area but not particularly exciting so I’m just going to leave it. I need more supporting signals to get involved.

DYZ18 – no good entry for me at the moment. Waiting for a better opportunity.

SIZ18 – still going sideways. wait and see.

VIX18 – looks like it has broken out, I might not get a second chance at this one.

#futures #commodityfutures #trading #tradingjournal

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