DXZ18 – the US dollar index failed to surpass the previous high at the first attempt so I will wait and see where we go from here.
GCZ18 – If I look at this through the lens of a market which is trending down, then yesterday’s break through the 100 day moving average and then retracement back down to the open is a very encouraging sign for the bears. Having said that a series of higher lows since the breakout on the 11th of October make me think that the pressure is still on the upside. Given it’s not a perfect set up then it’s better for me to wait.
KCZ18 – went short at 122.40 following my comments on the previous day’s journal entry. So far this is in the money, so I will wait and see how it goes. My 3% rule indicates I should add at 118.71 so I have emailed interactive brokers to make sure I am using the correct order type to get filled if I want to add to my position (if and only if the price trades through that level).
ZWZ18 – Wheat bounced strongly on big volume so it is possible that Friday’s low might have been the bottom of the range. The fact that it almost posted an outside day aside from perhaps one tick on the downside the day before and also has rising open interest is a positive sign. I also like the fact that it tried to take out the previous low and did so but then reversed. So I have moved my stop up after making a couple of lazy mistakes I following my good trade on the Dax. Following my 3% rule means the next price to add to this trade will be at 524. Now I’ve started using formal trading plan for each trade this is quite satisfying to have the structure in place and have named the number beforehand where I will take action.
CCZ18 – The price is still moving higher but because the trend has been so mixed does not give me any confidence so really I would say the only thing dominating is the range at the moment. That’s definitely a great basic filter to use on every trade. Unless it is strongly trending then it is in some sort of range so it’s just a case of making sure you are only acting at the extremes.
SBH19 – I went short sugar as well as coffee, my entry price on sugar was 13.86. I’m happy to have a short position now somewhere near the highs but after it has already started turning or so it appears at this stage. It’s all the rules that I should be following as the major long-term downtrend, as defined by the 200 day moving average, is trending quite strongly down and it’s more likely than not that the down trend will resume. Typically penetration of the 200 day moving average sloping this steeply is around 6-7% before it returns back below the trend. The long upper shadow on the 24th of October was the first warning sign and then the second was another evening star the next session. The uptrend might still resume but I want to follow my rules (trade with the trend) and research (6 out of 7 moves up through the 200 DMA failed over the last 10 years futures data by a manual inspection).
HGZ18 – still going sideways, nothing for me to do here.
ZSX18 – A similar story to soybean meal with the price having failed at the 100 day moving average on now drifting lower although the relative position is slightly different to soybean meal, with the price not at the bottom of the range yet.
ZMZ18 – The price bounced off the low of the range, but given the bigger picture is still in a downtrend then there’s still nothing to do here for me.
ZOZ18 – The price as rallied again posting a reversal day (outside day) but there is still no action for me to take as it’s not near any level I recognise and it’s already fallen below the midpoint of the bullish candle with large volume from the 15th October.
RSX18 – looking really bad but also a bit extended on the downside. I want to go short but this could also bounce in my face. Not an ideal setup so I’m just going to wait.
DYZ18 – doji at the bottom of a downtrend – possible reversal? have to wait.
SIZ18 – waiting. still long.
VIX18 – waiting for the rally in equities.
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