Trading journal – 30th October

DXZ18 – the US dollar index pressure building again.

GCZ18 – gold is still painting in uncertain picture , so I’m just going to leave it for now.

KCZ18 – Followed my 3% rule and added another unit at 118.70 to my initial short position at 122.40. The price tanked and now both units are in the money so my lesson from last night is to have the orders in the system. I have to plan at least 2 steps ahead. My second addition should have been at 115.20 but the price is now at 114.25. The next level to add is 111.70. Then 108.35, 105.10 and 101.95. If it makes it all the way back to 100 then I would be short 7 units at 111 roughly.

ZWZ18 – which came back a little bit after a big bounce on Monday so I’ll just watch it from here. The next level to add is at 524 so that’s a long way away.

CCZ18 – cocoa seems to have rejected the up move again and might be heading lower but again it’s too uncertain so I’m just going to watch.

SBH19 – got stopped out at 14.01. The price this morning at 13.50. A big negative signal and the price just ticked above 14 so I probably should have had my stop a little bit higher.

HGZ18 – another negative day from copper putting pressure on 2.70 now.

ZSX18 – drifting lower but still not a setup that I like

ZMZ18 – same as soybeans comma although it has drift it down towards the 305 area which has been a good buy previously but I don’t think it’s something that is a good buy for me right now.

ZOZ18 – oats are still heading sideways so it was good to get out.

RSF18 – I’ve moved to the January contract and canola is right at the lows that it has been previously with some mixed signals over the last three trading sessions. It’s a great risk reward but the trend is down in the short term signal is negative so perhaps only worth a very tight stop so you going long at market which is around 490 with a stop at 488.80. I don’t think I’ll take it though comma although I did just look back to a longer term chart and this has actually been a very good by level with the price failing to break down for a 5 times in the last 6 months. When I looked at the moving averages it is actually exactly the type of Confluence that I have been looking for with all the moving averages converging on a weekly candle chart. Having said that, the price has made a high in May followed by a lower high in August and then another lower high in October. Not the situation to go long.

DYZ18 – a big rejection from the Dax which tried to move significantly higher but then came back. This is a very negative signal but I’m still waiting for a rally up to around the 40 day moving average which is currently at 11921.

LSF19 – number has been in a long downtrend and is currently sitting around at 300 level. I remember when the price ran up all the way to 550 less than a year ago. In a short space of time this has been a pretty savage downtrend losing almost half it’s value in the space of four months. On a long-term chart that 300 level has been good buying but I don’t know if much is going to get in the way of this downtrend. Following my 18% rule which is when the price drops or goes above the 200 day moving average buy more than 18% then it usually due for some sort of mean reversion of at least 10% back towards the 200 day moving average. This is probably not a bad buy then but only with a very tight stop has this down trend is very strong.

CTZ18 – the price has been stepping down but it’s not really a clear trending opportunity for me.

OJF19 – the price had a very strong rally all the way up to 170 before making a couple of failed attempts to break through. Currently near the low levels seen before the huge Breakout so looking back at some of the previous moves the 61.8% retracement of the move from 87 up to 209 is 134. It’s currently at 138 but the recent history of trying to break higher is not very inspiring.

SIZ18 – got stopped out at 14.615.

VIX18 – waiting for the rally in equities.

#futures #commodityfutures #trading #tradingjournal

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