Trading journal – 3rd December

DXZ18 – the US dollar is lower today although not by very much compared to how far equities are up and that is a surprise. It’s only down by about half a percent compared to equities which are up between one and a half to 2%.

E6H19 – I went long the 1 and 2 month expiries in the 1.05 EUR/USD put option, I just keep on hearing all these reports about far right incidence and election results combined with Putin looking to destabilize Europe and Trump stirring up everyone. And then for me technical standpoint it looks like the US dollar index is going to push through most recent high and could go on a tear. If the US dollar does do that and I would think the Euro’s probably one of the weakest economic and political areas at the moment.

GCG19 – gold had a bounce and seems to be taking on a more positive tone although it could be said that today’s price action just reflects the drop in the U.S. dollar. Still I’m long a January gold call option with a 1300 strike just in case and I’ll probably continue to buy the front month nearest expiry as cheap “just in case” trade.

KCH19 – coffee still looks like it’s in a downtrend but I don’t have any good entry points at the moment so I’m just watching and waiting for an opportunity.

ZWH19 – a very interesting candle posted so far this session with the price capping higher on the open and now trading back towards the high from Friday’s session.

CCH19 – so far in this move from the 7th of November we’ve seen the price carve out a higher low which is positive but I’m not convinced yet so just going to wait

SBH19 – starting to see a little bit of disconnect between coffee and sugar with the price moving higher over the last four sessions in sugar whilst coffee struggled. That would make the buy zone somewhere around 12.20.

HGZ18 – possible break to the upside and a test of the 200 day moving average coming up I would think. It’s got another 3% to go so I would suspect it’s a good sell just above the 200 day moving average. I’d be disappointed if it was not able to penetrate the 200 day moving average on this one but I’ll be surprised if it holds above therefore more than 10 or 15 sessions before fading. My marker for a genuine break of the 200 day moving average when it is in a strong downtrend is 6% above. Otherwise the closer that it gets to 6% through the more likely I am to sell.

ZSF19 – I think Trump was talking to soybean Farmers when he made the announcement of buying lots of agricultural goods but as per usual is probably going to be zero meaningful follow through. However in the short term it’s a good reason for people to go long soybeans and that shows in the price so far this session. I would expect a move up to the 200 day moving average but I’m not sure how it will react.

ZMF19 – spectacular recovery for a soybean meal which has been looking pretty weak recently. There’s a much larger gap between the shorter term moving averages and the 200 day moving average so I’m not sure that will get a run all the way up there.

ZOH19 – so seems to be in there with a chance of pushing on but no good risk reward for me right now.

RSF19 – I don’t know that I have a good reference point for canola in terms of taking a short position. I suppose the 100 day moving average was the best entry in the last 3 months. Although I probably would expect it to be more likely to fail at the 40 day moving average if the down trend is strong.

DYZ18 – this was right in the hitting zone where I was expecting to take a position short of the Dax index but the manner in which I’ve arrived here does not fill me with confidence I’ve getting a short outcome and I’ve just had a bad loss on the S&P 500 so I’m going to just watch for a while.

ESZ18 – as mentioned in yesterday’s journal entry it was a tough day in terms of P and L. I don’t feel particularly down because of a couple of reasons , one being that I’ve had most of the weekend to expect that this was going to end badly if Trump did decide to do something positive. Although obviously I assigned a pretty small likelihood to that which is why I jacked up to leverage on my short position. The second reason I didn’t feel too bad was because even though I didn’t stop trading completely this morning and reverse my position to go long I soon realised that was a mistake and just closed everything out . So I was a little bit proud of myself for finally doing the right thing. I also went on my website to add to my list of mistakes and that was also a cathartic event. Just a reminder that it’s never too expensive to have a stop in there and I can always be too convinced that I’m right.

NQZ18 – lots of similar themes to the e-mini S&P entry, the price is now right at the 200 day moving average. If I was bearish I would expect the price to fail from here because it’s just below the most recent high and it’s also at a major trend marker. The momentum is so strong however that I’ll be very impressed if the bears can turn it around so soon after the G20 meeting.

LSF19 – waiting on 300. Very negative that the price is still going lower even though the US dollar is also lower and most other risk sentiment is positive.

CTH19 – huge bullish jump for cotton and I’ll be watching this with interest because of the moment there’s no real direction.

OJF19 – watching.

SIF19 – waiting for 14. Surprisingly there was a big jump in silver that was disproportionate to the drop in the US dollar. Knowing the events of the weekend and having already seen the US dollar move I would not have called that.

PLF19 – platinum is also bounced back but I think any rally up to the 40 day moving average will be a good opportunity to sell.

VIZ18 – Closed out for a 2k loss. No stop. Poor trade.

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– stay disciplined not to take any action whilst feelings about my most recent loss are still in my short term memory.

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