Trading Journal – 19th December

DXH19 – still not through 97. Probably a buy around 96. I’m going to put in a buy order at 96.10 and the lowest the price has been below the 40 day moving average is 15pts since the start of October. That is a good risk reward opportunity to get on the trend, $150 and I have reason plus a couple of examples to expect this might hold. I’m also thinking we will see a move through 97 shortly so at a minimum it could be $900 on the upside.

E6H19 – still trading sideways, 1.14 is still holding.

B6H19 – rallying back up towards 1.2750 now, going short with a stop above 1.2750 (around 1.2770). Only speculative so keeping a tight stop. Just want to get on board this trend if the move continues lower.

GCG19 – on balance being supported. Seems to be heading for the 200 DMA.

SIF19 – drifting higher but still mostly sideways. Might be going for a run higher but nothing for me to be involved in.

PLF19 – hard to tell if this is a continuation or a reversal set up. I suppose that sentence says it’s nothing that i recognise at the moment!

HGH19 – The midpoint of the big negative candle from the 18th is around 2.7037, so that could be a good point to get short. Looking at a longer term chart (6 month) the price move is not that significant – it’s the bottom of the shorter term range back to October but the meaningful level is the series of lows around 2.60 from August and September. I will wait.

KCH19 – The price of coffee for the March contract is almost down to the previous low of 98.55 which was established in mid September. The sharp rally that we have seen now almost just looks like a blip in the down trend. Even going back to a five year chart there are no significant data points below where we are now which suggest a place we could expect to stop. Even looking at the big move from 210 down to 99 we have only covered a small retracement in the recent rally up to 129. Volatility is not particularly elevated at the moment so I wonder if it’s worth buying some out-of-the-money puts just in case the price collapses down through the 99 level. Typically they expire worthless so i’ll just buy two at 0.0040 for the 8th March Expiry on the May 2019 contract and an 0.8750 strike. Cost $300 in total, so I’ll put in a sell order for one of them (to cover the cost of both) at 0.0080.

CCH19 – still cognisant of the reverse head and shoulders but for now just looks to be going sideways. A bit higher today.

SBH19 – Sugar seems to be right on the edge of the previous support so if it doesn’t hold here and we could quickly see the price down to 10.79 I would think.

LSF19 – waiting on 300. It’s slowly getting there.

CTH19 – back towards the bottom of the range. Cotton has been a constant battle ground over the last month. Not a place for me to get involved.

OJH19 – now just looking like a failed rally in a downtrend.

ZCH19 – Throughout October corn tried to rally through the 390 level, it failed several times. The sellers then regained the upper hand with the price dropping back towards 370 but they couldn’t keep momentum. Now the price has rallied back up towards that previous High and seems to be holding their preparing for a break. All of the moving averages up to the 100 day have converged. Looking back through a one year chart all I can see is that there’s no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZWH19 – sideways for now.

ZSF19 – The shorter term averages are all turning high now so maybe momentum is turning in soybeans favour. Certainly it has a series of higher lows. The 200 day moving average is still heading down quite strongly however so it is unlikely this will be a sustained breakout even if it does move higher in the short term.

ZMF19 – indecisive

ZOH19 – still going sideways. I’m still long, just sitting with my stop still at 281.

RSH19 – holding a higher low in the short term.

DYZ18 – any chance I get to sell near the 40 day moving average I will be taking. I haven’t got anything so far.

ESZ18 – it will be very interesting to see how the market responds to the 2600 level.

NQZ18 – Back above 6500 so far this session, wait and see where it goes.

VIZ18 – no chance for me to do anything at the moment

Actions required as a result of today’s journal

– move my stop up to 281 on oats.

Action:
– bought two coffee OTM put options with 0.8750 strike for March 8th 2019 expiry, paid 0.0040.
– Need to enter a sell order for one of the coffee options at 0.0080 to cover my cost in case of a spike which fades.
– I signed up to my previous data provider to get my trade reporting spreadsheet working with a current data set. Have to figure out how to get individual contract histories. Sent email regarding this.

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