Trading journal – 26th January

DXH19 – DXY fading from this bounce before I expected it , I thought it would probably test the 97 barrier before it came back to the 100 day moving average again.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14. It managed to respond well after dipping below 1.14 but the signs are a little bit ominous after failing at the 100 day moving average on the 10th of January and now making a new low since May 2017.

B6H19 – the contrarian still enjoying a bouncing the British Pound but the signals are overwhelmingly negative and if it manages to make it up anywhere near the 200 day moving average then I will definitely be selling.

GCG19 – my long options were going to expire worthless except for the surprising bounce which has taken them right up to the strike with only two more trading days to go. Certainly is a very interesting signal when the volume has all but expired on the underlying futures contract so perhaps someone pushing to get a favourable option expiry above 1300. I am going to leave a limit order in the system because with no volume in this contract and almost 2000 contracts through with a couple of days to maturity I’d be surprised if someone is not just trying to get a digital option strike in the money before expiry.

SIF19 – a huge bounce in silver and it seems we are going to have another test of the 200 day moving average.

PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.

PAH19 – Still driving higher, bouncing off the 15 day moving average.

HGH19 – still moving higher, my 2.50 strike puts will probably expire worthless with only a couple of days to go.

SBH19 – sugar got absolutely belted on pretty big volume but it’s only coming back to the midpoint of the large candle of the 7th of January which is at about 12.31 and the averages are almost all starting to turn higher so it’s an interesting context.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low. 100 would seem to be a big level and hearing stories of coffee plantation worker migration makes me think there is a good opportunity to go long from 99.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – very hard to read which means it’s probably not a good opportunity at this stage because there’s two competing themes.

LSH19 – Price up again and starting to look more positive now. This could be a rally up towards 402. Friday’s session saw a high of 392.20 which is a bit below the 200 day moving average of 399.60. Might provide a good opportunity to go short close to the 200 day moving average.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – maybe a great chance to sell around these levels from a technical point of view but there is a suspicion in the back of my mind that we could see a decent push through the 200 day moving average before it fails given the prospect of a Trump deal with China in the near term. My ideal scenario is to wait till it moves around 6% through the 200 day moving average before going short or buying some out of the money put options.

ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.

ZOH19 – strong rejection at 300. but looks like now the support was at the 100 DMA.

RSH19 – Glad that I had a stop in place as the price has continued higher and I would have been bleeding now even though the bigger picture does not look good for canola. If this rally continues then it would probably be a good sell at the 100 day moving average which will be close to the previous High from the 7th of December at 496.30.

CLG19 – got stopped out on this short trade and it is hanging around 54 at the moment. It’s only a short way through the retracement of that massive down move which finished on December 24, so there still could be quite a bit of room to go on the upside before we get to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. I don’t have any satistics to support any action at the moment so I’m just going to wait.

NGG19 – too much going on here for me to get involved.

LEM19 – need a little more detail in this because it could be a good buy around the 100 day moving average.

DYH19 – same as nasdaq and spx.

ESH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA. Don’t know how long I should wait with this but it’s not too far away now.

NQH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA.

VIG19 – going low from the 200 DMA.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– buy VIX
– start buying near dated put option expiries for equities.
– congratulate myself for sticking to my one week trading ban after having four losses in a row which cost me about 7% of my total portfolio.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

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