Trading Journal – 12th February 2019

DXH19 – maybe building for a break to the topside?

E6H19 – has this now become a genuine break below 1.14?

B6H19 – market has come gently lower so unlikely to see any action below 1.25. Expecting my 1.24 put options should expire worthless.

GCG19 – coming back to the short term trend. This could be a genuine break higher of the 200 DMA for gold and perhaps not a bad time to get on board. I think I will go long with a stop beneath 1300.

SIH19 – Silver has broken through the 200 DMA, the downward slope of the 200 DMA is not a good sign however the fact gold has turned the corner and all the moving averages are now stacked bullishly makes me think this could have a positive outcome.

PLH19 – good that i got stopped out as the price continued lower.

PAH19 – Still driving higher, bouncing off the 15 day moving average. a relentless trend. The price is now 30% above the 200 DMA which is an extreme distance, I am tempted to buy some mean reversion options if they are available and sit on that.

HGH19 – copper has now failed at the 200 DMA and looks like a good opportunity to go short.

SBH19 – back down to the 200 DMA, a lot of converging signals. Two major lows now seem to be in place in the soft commodity bloc with sugar and coffee both finding support and pushing higher then stabilise at a higher range. Sugar is the more bullish of the two. I will go long around 12.53 with a stop just below.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break. Only a couple of days to go until expiry, so I will enter a limit order for one and let the other expire in case the price runs lower.

KCH19 – will coffee find support at 100 again. I might leave an entry order to go long just above 99 with a stop at 98. I left an order to buy 5 put options with 24 days to expiry and a strike of 0.9750. Ideally I would then use an entry order to go long at 98 or 98.50.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – looks like consolidation before the downtrend continues at this stage.

LSH19 – Lucky I had a tight stop on this one because the price did run quite a way through the 200 day moving average before stopping just underneath 450.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – failing at the 200 DMA.

ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.

ZOH19 – buy near 281 at the 100 DMA? One nice thing about this for my portfolio is this is a “long risk” scenario primarily because it is offset by the falling US Dollar index in a ‘risk on’ scenario I would expect. At the moment I am long outright two units of risk off (long VIX and short DAX) so it would be nice to have a balancing item on a portfolio basis.

RSH19 – Glad that I had a stop in place as the price has continued higher and I would have been bleeding now even though the bigger picture does not look good for canola. If this rally continues then it would probably be a good sell at the 100 day moving average which will be close to the previous High from the 7th of December at 496.30.

CLH19 – short near 55? I might buy a call option to use as my stop and go short near 55.

NGH19 – too much going on here for me to get involved. Right back near the lows.

LEM19 – cattle getting back on the front foot.

DYH19 – I am short 1 unit from 11,187

ESH19 – I have some exposure on OTM equity put options with a range of expiries and will shortly look to buy some 2750 call options to use as a guaranteed stop on going short outright futures from say 2725 in case it gets there.

NQH19 – Bought 2 x very short dated expiries and will continue to buy short term near dated expiries.

VIG19 – I am long from 17.20.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– go long oats
– go long coffee once my stop is in place (i.e. my put option order gets hit)
– go long gold.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

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