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Trading journal – 11th December

DXZ18 – US dollar index as pushed on again from the 40 day moving average which has proved a good buying opportunity and may this time be looking to break through the previous high at 97.50. Still waiting for that.

E6Z18 – still stuck around 1.13 and at the moment with a lack of momentum to the downside and still a lot of bad news coming out I’m surprised it’s not moving. Probably a sign that long positions are holding fast and haven’t begun the unwind yet. If it doesn’t move soon the shorts would get discouraged and I’d expect it to push back towards 1.16. I’m still long the 1.05 put options in both January and February expiries.

GCG19 – the trend is higher and I think my February expiry options standard good chance of getting hit, they’re only 2% above the 200 day moving average, perfect for a false break in a downtrend. I might buy a few more.

KCH19 – waiting for 98.55

ZCH19 – still trading sideways, on balance I’d say its being supported.

ZWH19 – making a break for the 200 day moving average? Formed a bit of a rolling bottom around 500 over the last 6 months, might be the springboard to another rally up to 600.

CCH19 – nothing convincing yet.

SBH19 – nothing today.

HGZ18 – sideways.

ZSF19 – holding above 900 for now. I’m not filled with confidence. Need some supporting evidence.

ZMF19 – indecisive

ZOH19 – Long at 285 1/4 with a stop at 280. Waiting to see what happens.

RSF19 – selling into the rally on this big picture downtrend. Going short at market with a stop at 491.

DYZ18 – still in a downtrend. My take profit at 11,452 is looking expensive now although the rally back up to 11,843 would have almost wiped out all my profits and I would have felt pretty bad. It made me feel better at the time to take profit and build my account.

ESZ18 – equities tested 2600 and rallied off those lows, there might be another chnace to sell yet. Maybe this is what Jesse Livermore was saying in Reminisces (of a srock operator) about waiting for the right time. So many false dawns.

NQZ18 – 6,500 was the previous low, waiting for a break. A higher low this time at 6535. If the trend of peaks continues then the next rally should take us to somewhere around 7,000. That has to be my focus for getting short. It truly is a challenge to believe through all the hype that the tide will turn again and again.

LSF19 – waiting on 300. It’s slowly getting there.

CTH19 – cotton has been a constant battle ground over the last month. Not a place for me to get involved.

OJF19 – watching this for now. A HUGE DAILY RANGE. All through in one order it looks like on the short term charts. Must be an unwind. The fact it has gone so far down makes me think it was a long position. With that long out of the way I would think now the path of least resistance is lower.

SIF19 – drifting higher.

PLF19 – is it going to bounce from here and provide me with a selling opportunity

VIZ18 – no chance for me to do anything at the moment

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– assess value of buying 2 week gold 1300 call option expiries.
-sign up to Edgewonk and complete the free trial to see if it is a suitable trade analysis tool

Trading journal – 10th December

DXZ18 – equities still getting belted in the Asian session and yet the US dollar index is down. Not quite sure I get that one yet.

GCG19 – gold is up small and should start to move now I would think. It’s pushing 1,250 but it has failed from here before.

KCH19 – still drifting lower

ZCH19 – still trading sideways

ZWH19 – waiting for 500, but after a big up day on Friday, this might be heading higher. I’m undecided for now.

CCH19 – buying around 2100, a big up day on good volume. Still no clear signal yet. Maybe another test of the 200 day moving average at 2397?

SBH19 – nothing today.

HGZ18 – Wait and see.

ZSF19 – holding above 900 for now. I’m not filled with confidence. Need some supporting evidence.

ZMF19 – indecisive

ZOH19 – this was where I thought it was in a buy zone before but now I’m not so convinced. Although all the trend indicators are pointing higher. Maybe buy with a tight stop, say 280. Just did exactly that. Now long at 285 1/4 with a stop at 280.

RSF19 – nothing on this for me at the moment . It should run into resistance around 489 so it will be interesting to see how it responds to this level.

DYZ18 – still in a downtrend. I’m not sure it’s going to get back up to 11000 but I’m going to put in a sell order at 10990 with a stop at 11030.

ESZ18 – equities testing the lows looks like we could be heading to a break down below 2600.

NQZ18 – 6,500 was the previous low, waiting for a break.

LSF19 – waiting on 300.

CTH19 – cotton has been a constant battle ground over the last month. Not a place for me to get involved.

OJF19 – watching this for now.

SIF19 – drifting higher.

PLF19 – is it going to bounce from here and provide me with a selling opportunity

VIZ18 – no chance for me to do anything at the moment

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– Satisfying to have taken a week off and kept my promise to myself after a big loss.
– entered a long trade with oats in the March ’19 contract at 285 and a stop just below at 280

Trading journal- 7th December

DXZ18 – nothing day.

GCG19 – up a little bit and the recent positive momentum remains in place. Just a question of whether it can hold above 1250.

KCH19 – still drifting lower

ZCH19 – still trading sideways

ZWH19 – waiting for 500.

CCH19 – buying around 2100.

SBH19 – nothing today.

HGZ18 – Wait and see.

ZSF19 – holding above 900 for now

ZMF19 – indecisive

ZOH19 – still sideways.

RSF19 – nothing on this for me at the moment . It should run into resistance around 489 so it will be interesting to see how it responds to this level.

DYZ18 – still in a downtrend. Europe has been belted much harder than the US it seems the last few months and this looks like a definitive downside break of 11000. Big volume on yesterday’s break lower so if we go back up to 11000 I’ll probably sell short there.

ESZ18 – massive reversal day on the emini S&P that again went down towards 2620 before bouncing. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a small rally again from here but the bigger picture is still negative so until we surpass 2815 I’d be surprised if the bull market doesn’t turn into a full-blown bear market

NQZ18 – similar theme to the e mini S&P although the trend has been a bit more negative then the sideways action we seen in the S&P over the last month.

LSF19 – waiting on 300.

CTH19 – big rejection of the attempted move higher but now we will wait to see if there is a move lower.

OJF19 – watching this for now.

SIF19 – drifting higher.

PLF19 – down again.

VIZ18 – the 100 day moving average proved a good place to buy this time so I think if I get within 1% of that then I will look too bye again.

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– stay disciplined not to take any action whilst feelings about my most recent loss are still in my short term memory.

Trading journal – 6th December

DXZ18 – nothing day.

GCG19 – down a little bit but the recent positive momentum remains in place.

KCH19 – still drifting lower

ZWH19 – waiting for 500.

CCH19 – a big down day and it looks like this is more confirmation of the downtrend so perhaps we will see 2000 sooner rather than later.

SBH19 – nothing today.

HGZ18 – Wait and see.

ZSF19 – indecisive

ZMF19 – indecisive

ZOH19 – still sideways.

RSF19 – nothing on this for me at the moment

DYZ18 – still in a downtrend.

ESZ18 – Closed

NQZ18 – Closed

LSF19 – waiting on 300.

CTH19 – big up day, but only as high as the 200 day moving average so we’ll wait and see. Less than 6% through the 200 day moving average so definitely seems like a false break but is it a reason to go long? I’m not sure. That’s a no.

OJF19 – watching this for now.

SIF19 – drifting higher.

PLF19 – down again.

VIZ18 – Closed

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– stay disciplined not to take any action whilst feelings about my most recent loss are still in my short term memory.

Trading journal – 5th December

DXZ18 – a big bounce from the 40 day moving average and now the US dollar is on the front foot.

GCG19 – more pressure to the upside so just have to wait and see

KCH19 – still drifting lower

ZWH19 – waiting for 500.

CCH19 – possibly about to make a lower high and then sell off again towards 2000.

SBH19 – nothing today.

HGZ18 – Wait and see.

ZSF19 – indecisive

ZMF19 – indecisive

ZOH19 – still sideways.

RSF19 – nothing on this for me at the moment

DYZ18 – still in a downtrend.

ESZ18 – big ugly day yesterday so be interesting to see how it responds over the next couple of days.

NQZ18 – hard to read so just going to watch.

LSF19 – waiting on 300.

CTH19 – reversal day on Monday, can cotton recover? Wait and see.

OJF19 – watching this for now.

SIF19 – drifting higher.

PLF19 – down again.

VIZ18 – a massive spike and disappointing to have missed it but I could not tolerate the lost so better to get out and miss the upside knowing that I’m prioritise protecting my capital and another opportunity will come along at some point . One that is a better risk/reward.

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– stay disciplined not to take any action whilst feelings about my most recent loss are still in my short term memory.

Trading journal – 4th December

DXZ18 – still drifting back towards the 40 day moving average.

GCG19 – looks like gold is trying to make a break with the price currently pushing 1243. It’s still a long way from 1300 but if a break is made then it could reach the 200 day moving average relatively quickly. 1250 is the next level to be surpassed and where the previous rally failed in late October.

KCH19 – still looking terrible and no change to my view we are headed for the previous low near 100. It’s already through the 61.8% retracement of the run from 98 to 129. On a long term chart the 150 area seems to be a pretty big level, and obviously with 100 being a nice big round number I’m wondering if the story of the next year or so will be framed within those two parameters however for now I think we’re just waiting to see whether coffee is able to start forming a bottom.

ZWH19 – more weakness from wheat as the price back down towards 500 again.

CCH19 – I’ll be interested to see if the price can overcome all the short term moving averages which are stacked hereabouts.

SBH19 – staying to look soft again.

HGZ18 – not a great look for the last two sessions. Wait and see.

ZSF19 – is it coming back to confirm the old resistance as support?

ZMF19 – not a good idea buying into a big picture downtrend without some statistical structure or support around my approach.

ZOH19 – so seems to be in there with a chance of pushing on but no good risk reward for me right now.

RSF19 – nothing on this for me at the moment

DYZ18 – still in a downtrend.

ESZ18 – looks like it could bed heading south again from here. This will be the third time that it’s failed at 2818.

NQZ18 – fading from the 200 day moving average.

LSF19 – waiting on 300.

CTH19 – reversal day on Monday, can cotton recover? Wait and see.

OJF19 – watching this for now.

SIF19 – drifting higher.

PLF19 – down again.

VIZ18 – finding a low around.

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– stay disciplined not to take any action whilst feelings about my most recent loss are still in my short term memory

Trading journal – 3rd December

DXZ18 – the US dollar is lower today although not by very much compared to how far equities are up and that is a surprise. It’s only down by about half a percent compared to equities which are up between one and a half to 2%.

E6H19 – I went long the 1 and 2 month expiries in the 1.05 EUR/USD put option, I just keep on hearing all these reports about far right incidence and election results combined with Putin looking to destabilize Europe and Trump stirring up everyone. And then for me technical standpoint it looks like the US dollar index is going to push through most recent high and could go on a tear. If the US dollar does do that and I would think the Euro’s probably one of the weakest economic and political areas at the moment.

GCG19 – gold had a bounce and seems to be taking on a more positive tone although it could be said that today’s price action just reflects the drop in the U.S. dollar. Still I’m long a January gold call option with a 1300 strike just in case and I’ll probably continue to buy the front month nearest expiry as cheap “just in case” trade.

KCH19 – coffee still looks like it’s in a downtrend but I don’t have any good entry points at the moment so I’m just watching and waiting for an opportunity.

ZWH19 – a very interesting candle posted so far this session with the price capping higher on the open and now trading back towards the high from Friday’s session.

CCH19 – so far in this move from the 7th of November we’ve seen the price carve out a higher low which is positive but I’m not convinced yet so just going to wait

SBH19 – starting to see a little bit of disconnect between coffee and sugar with the price moving higher over the last four sessions in sugar whilst coffee struggled. That would make the buy zone somewhere around 12.20.

HGZ18 – possible break to the upside and a test of the 200 day moving average coming up I would think. It’s got another 3% to go so I would suspect it’s a good sell just above the 200 day moving average. I’d be disappointed if it was not able to penetrate the 200 day moving average on this one but I’ll be surprised if it holds above therefore more than 10 or 15 sessions before fading. My marker for a genuine break of the 200 day moving average when it is in a strong downtrend is 6% above. Otherwise the closer that it gets to 6% through the more likely I am to sell.

ZSF19 – I think Trump was talking to soybean Farmers when he made the announcement of buying lots of agricultural goods but as per usual is probably going to be zero meaningful follow through. However in the short term it’s a good reason for people to go long soybeans and that shows in the price so far this session. I would expect a move up to the 200 day moving average but I’m not sure how it will react.

ZMF19 – spectacular recovery for a soybean meal which has been looking pretty weak recently. There’s a much larger gap between the shorter term moving averages and the 200 day moving average so I’m not sure that will get a run all the way up there.

ZOH19 – so seems to be in there with a chance of pushing on but no good risk reward for me right now.

RSF19 – I don’t know that I have a good reference point for canola in terms of taking a short position. I suppose the 100 day moving average was the best entry in the last 3 months. Although I probably would expect it to be more likely to fail at the 40 day moving average if the down trend is strong.

DYZ18 – this was right in the hitting zone where I was expecting to take a position short of the Dax index but the manner in which I’ve arrived here does not fill me with confidence I’ve getting a short outcome and I’ve just had a bad loss on the S&P 500 so I’m going to just watch for a while.

ESZ18 – as mentioned in yesterday’s journal entry it was a tough day in terms of P and L. I don’t feel particularly down because of a couple of reasons , one being that I’ve had most of the weekend to expect that this was going to end badly if Trump did decide to do something positive. Although obviously I assigned a pretty small likelihood to that which is why I jacked up to leverage on my short position. The second reason I didn’t feel too bad was because even though I didn’t stop trading completely this morning and reverse my position to go long I soon realised that was a mistake and just closed everything out . So I was a little bit proud of myself for finally doing the right thing. I also went on my website to add to my list of mistakes and that was also a cathartic event. Just a reminder that it’s never too expensive to have a stop in there and I can always be too convinced that I’m right.

NQZ18 – lots of similar themes to the e-mini S&P entry, the price is now right at the 200 day moving average. If I was bearish I would expect the price to fail from here because it’s just below the most recent high and it’s also at a major trend marker. The momentum is so strong however that I’ll be very impressed if the bears can turn it around so soon after the G20 meeting.

LSF19 – waiting on 300. Very negative that the price is still going lower even though the US dollar is also lower and most other risk sentiment is positive.

CTH19 – huge bullish jump for cotton and I’ll be watching this with interest because of the moment there’s no real direction.

OJF19 – watching.

SIF19 – waiting for 14. Surprisingly there was a big jump in silver that was disproportionate to the drop in the US dollar. Knowing the events of the weekend and having already seen the US dollar move I would not have called that.

PLF19 – platinum is also bounced back but I think any rally up to the 40 day moving average will be a good opportunity to sell.

VIZ18 – Closed out for a 2k loss. No stop. Poor trade.

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– stay disciplined not to take any action whilst feelings about my most recent loss are still in my short term memory.