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trading journal – 17th February 2019

DXH19 – I am surprised this was so weak on Friday to drop back below 97. maybe coming back to the 100 DMA before another attempt.

E6H19 – has this now become a genuine break below 1.14? Looks like it might finally be a good time to sell if it rallies back up towards 1.14.

B6H19 – market has come gently lower so unlikely to see any action below 1.25. Expecting my 1.24 put options should expire worthless.

GCG19 – Gold definitely looking like it is trending higher now, just need to get on board.

SIH19 – Silver has broken through the 200 DMA, the downward slope of the 200 DMA is not a good sign however the fact gold has turned the corner and all the moving averages are now stacked bullishly for gold makes me think this could have a positive outcome.

PLH19 – good that i got stopped out as the price continued lower.

PAH19 – Still driving higher, bouncing off the 15 day moving average. a relentless trend. The price is now 30% above the 200 DMA which is an extreme distance, I am tempted to buy some mean reversion options if they are available and sit on that.

HGH19 – copper has now failed at the 200 DMA and looks like a good opportunity to go short.

SBH19 – a poor effort by me on monitoring positions, I did not get an entry on this as I did not leave an order after deciding to go long around 12.53 with a stop just below. Oh well, have to continue to watch.

CCH19 – cocoa has turned things around and the price is now moving higher, but a big question with the 200 DMA coming down from overhead – will this be a negative outcome.

KCH19 – I left an entry order to go long at 98.50 with the intention that my 5 put options with 24 days to expiry and a strike of 0.9750 would provide a good stop. In the end I was not paying attention and left the entry order for the expiring March contract whilst the options were for the May contract. Noticing a lot of attention to detail mistakes creeping in recently. Getting distracted with work and family stuff. Might need to cut down my focus to just one trade at a time.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – looks like consolidation before the downtrend continues at this stage.

LSH19 – starting to look quite strong and may be making a genuine break higher.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – failing at the 200 DMA.

ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.

ZOH19 – undecided at the moment.

RSH19 – back at the lows.

CLH19 – not sure here.

NGH19 – too much going on here for me to get involved. Right back near the lows.

LEM19 – cattle getting back on the front foot.

DYH19 – I am short 1 unit from 11,187

ESH19 – I have some exposure on OTM equity put options with a range of expiries and will shortly look to buy some 2750 call options to use as a guaranteed stop on going short outright futures from say 2725 in case it gets there.

NQH19 – Bought 2 x very short dated expiries and will continue to buy short term near dated expiries.

VIG19 – I am long from 17.20. stopped out at 16.6

Trading Journal – 12th February 2019

DXH19 – maybe building for a break to the topside?

E6H19 – has this now become a genuine break below 1.14?

B6H19 – market has come gently lower so unlikely to see any action below 1.25. Expecting my 1.24 put options should expire worthless.

GCG19 – coming back to the short term trend. This could be a genuine break higher of the 200 DMA for gold and perhaps not a bad time to get on board. I think I will go long with a stop beneath 1300.

SIH19 – Silver has broken through the 200 DMA, the downward slope of the 200 DMA is not a good sign however the fact gold has turned the corner and all the moving averages are now stacked bullishly makes me think this could have a positive outcome.

PLH19 – good that i got stopped out as the price continued lower.

PAH19 – Still driving higher, bouncing off the 15 day moving average. a relentless trend. The price is now 30% above the 200 DMA which is an extreme distance, I am tempted to buy some mean reversion options if they are available and sit on that.

HGH19 – copper has now failed at the 200 DMA and looks like a good opportunity to go short.

SBH19 – back down to the 200 DMA, a lot of converging signals. Two major lows now seem to be in place in the soft commodity bloc with sugar and coffee both finding support and pushing higher then stabilise at a higher range. Sugar is the more bullish of the two. I will go long around 12.53 with a stop just below.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break. Only a couple of days to go until expiry, so I will enter a limit order for one and let the other expire in case the price runs lower.

KCH19 – will coffee find support at 100 again. I might leave an entry order to go long just above 99 with a stop at 98. I left an order to buy 5 put options with 24 days to expiry and a strike of 0.9750. Ideally I would then use an entry order to go long at 98 or 98.50.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – looks like consolidation before the downtrend continues at this stage.

LSH19 – Lucky I had a tight stop on this one because the price did run quite a way through the 200 day moving average before stopping just underneath 450.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – failing at the 200 DMA.

ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.

ZOH19 – buy near 281 at the 100 DMA? One nice thing about this for my portfolio is this is a “long risk” scenario primarily because it is offset by the falling US Dollar index in a ‘risk on’ scenario I would expect. At the moment I am long outright two units of risk off (long VIX and short DAX) so it would be nice to have a balancing item on a portfolio basis.

RSH19 – Glad that I had a stop in place as the price has continued higher and I would have been bleeding now even though the bigger picture does not look good for canola. If this rally continues then it would probably be a good sell at the 100 day moving average which will be close to the previous High from the 7th of December at 496.30.

CLH19 – short near 55? I might buy a call option to use as my stop and go short near 55.

NGH19 – too much going on here for me to get involved. Right back near the lows.

LEM19 – cattle getting back on the front foot.

DYH19 – I am short 1 unit from 11,187

ESH19 – I have some exposure on OTM equity put options with a range of expiries and will shortly look to buy some 2750 call options to use as a guaranteed stop on going short outright futures from say 2725 in case it gets there.

NQH19 – Bought 2 x very short dated expiries and will continue to buy short term near dated expiries.

VIG19 – I am long from 17.20.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– go long oats
– go long coffee once my stop is in place (i.e. my put option order gets hit)
– go long gold.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

Trading Journal – 10th February 2019

DXH19 – DXY didn’t get down as far as the 200 DMA, no action to take for now.
E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14 and right back down towards the bottom of the range so perhaps this could be a good opportunity to buy some short term put options with a few days to expiry in case it does spike lower.
B6H19 – market has come gently lower so unlikely to see any action below 1.25. Expecting my 1.24 put options should expire worthless.
GCG19 – price being supported at the short term average.
SIH19 – Silver is still going sideways, the downward angle of the 200 DMA is a good indicator of a breakout move not likely to be successful.
PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.
PAH19 – Still driving higher,  bouncing off the 15 day moving average. a relentless trend. The price is now 30% above the 200 DMA which is an extreme distance, I am tempted to buy some mean reversion options if they are available and sit on that.
HGH19 –  copper has now failed at the 200 DMA and looks like a good opportunity to go short.
SBH19 –  back down to the 200 DMA, a lot of converging signals. Two major lows now seem to be in place in the soft commodity bloc with sugar and coffee both finding support and pushing higher then stabilise at a higher range. Sugar is the more bullish of the two.
CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break. Only a couple of days to go until expiry, so I will enter a limit order for one and let the other expire in case the price runs lower.
KCH19 – still finding support at the old low. 100 would seem to be a big level and hearing stories of coffee plantation worker  migration makes me think there is a good opportunity to go long from 99.
OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.
CTH19 – looks like consolidation before the downtrend continues at this stage.
LSH19 –  Lucky I had a tight stop on this one because the price did run quite a way through the 200 day moving average before stopping just underneath 450.
ZWH19 – still sideways.
ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.
ZSH19 – failing at the 200 DMA.
ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.
ZOH19 – buy near 280 at the 100 DMA?
RSH19 – Glad that I had a stop in place as the price has continued higher and I would have been bleeding now even though the bigger picture does not look good for canola. If this rally continues then it would probably be a good sell at the 100 day moving average which will be close to the previous High from the 7th of December at 496.30.
CLH19 –  short near 55? I might buy a call option to use as my stop and go short near 55.
NGH19 – too much going on here for me to get involved. Right back near the lows.
LEM19 – cattle getting back on the front foot.
DYH19 – I am short 1 unit from 11,187
ESH19 – I have some exposure on OTM equity put options with a range of expiries and will shortly look to buy some 2750 call options to use as a guaranteed stop on going short outright futures from say 2725 in case it gets there.
NQH19  – Bought 2 x very short dated expiries and will continue to buy short term near dated expiries.
VIG19 – I am long from 17.20.
Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– buy NQ call options with a 7000 strike and 5 day to expiry then go short just before 7000. Same with ES call options with a strike of 2750 and similar time to expiry.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

Have been thinking about the share market…

Just looking back at historical penetrations of a bull share market below the 200 day moving average and identified where there are large penetrations.

Visually they work out to be between 6% to 13% before it looks like the market is going to turn lower and anything around a 10% penetration below the 200 day moving average seems to be a relatively meaningful indicator that things are going to head lower over the next two years.

Basically I’ve looked at anything that seems like it would be scary to belong in the middle of.

Again in line with previous research the moves of around 6-7% penetration above or below the 200 day moving average are not a good indicator of change in direction (essentially just noise to the larger multi-year trends). If anything they probably indicate that a move below the 200 day moving average of that distance should be bought or sold anticipating that the trend will resume in the original direction.

In this case the sharp break lower, followed by the retracement back up to the 61.8% retracement levels of the down move as well as the 200DMA turning lower and a +10% bearish penetration of the 200 DMA make me think this is an opportunity.

Typically it’s about 3-5 months from the 10% penetration to the interim high before the final decline takes place so I’m willing to take a bit of risk and will continue to buy near dated expiries to replace the below until my view changes.

I’m long a number of equity put options with strikes for early to mid February in the NASDAQ e-mini contract at 6600, 6350, 6100, the e mini s&P 500 at 2590 and Australian dollar currency futures put options with strikes in March at the $0.67 mark and sold the DAX contract at 11187 and went long the VIX volatility contract on the S&P 500 at 17.20. So I suppose you could say that I’m bearish on equity market to the moment…

Trading Journal – 31st January 2019

DXH19 – DXY fading from this bounce before I expected it, I thought it would probably test the 97 barrier before it came back to the 100 day moving average again. Could be heading for the 200 DMA.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14 and heading for the 200 DMA?

B6H19 – went long 5 x 1.24 put options with a 2 week expiry. Unlikely to get hit but just on the chance that this all goes horribly wrong, the risk reward seems good from the 200 DMA.

GCG19 – Unexpectedly got stopped out on an order I wasn’t aware was in at 1307. Disappointing to miss out on this move but paying the price for not paying attention to my outstanding orders.

SIF19 – Silver is still going strong although the downward angle of the 200 DMA is a concern (unusual to push on very far when the 200 DMA is strongly sloped against the short term uptrend.

PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.

PAH19 – Still driving higher, bouncing off the 15 day moving average.

HGH19 – copper breaking to the upside, strong towards the 200 DMA.

SBH19 – back down to the 200 DMA, a lot of converging signals.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break. Only a couple of days to go until expiry, so I will enter a limit order for one and let the other expire in case the price runs lower.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low. 100 would seem to be a big level and hearing stories of coffee plantation worker migration makes me think there is a good opportunity to go long from 99.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – looks like consolidation before the downtrend continues at this stage.

LSH19 – I went short at 410 with a stop at 410.6 and was stopped out for a small loss. Perhaps I should check what is the 6% barrier through the level, based on a 200 DMA of 398 the stop would be 421.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – Short around 6% through the 200 day moving average.

ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.

ZOH19 – buy near 280 at the 100 DMA?

RSH19 – Glad that I had a stop in place as the price has continued higher and I would have been bleeding now even though the bigger picture does not look good for canola. If this rally continues then it would probably be a good sell at the 100 day moving average which will be close to the previous High from the 7th of December at 496.30.

CLG19 – short near 55?

NGG19 – too much going on here for me to get involved. Right back near the lows.

LEM19 – need a little more detail in this because it could be a good buy around the 100 day moving average.

DYH19 – same as nasdaq and spx.

ESH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA. Don’t know how long I should wait with this but it’s not too far away now.

NQH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA. Bought 2 x very short dated expiries and will continue to buy short term near dated expiries.

VIG19 – going long from the 200 DMA.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– buy VIX
– start buying near dated put option expiries for equities.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

Trading Journal – 29th January 2019

DXH19 – DXY fading from this bounce before I expected it , I thought it would probably test the 97 barrier before it came back to the 100 day moving average again. Could be heading for the 200 DMA.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14. It managed to respond well after dipping below 1.14 but the signs are a little bit ominous after failing at the 100 day moving average on the 10th of January and now making a new low since May 2017.

B6H19 – possibly a great sell into a downtrend for GBP, price has rallied all the way to the 200 DMA and now with no positive news ahead it would require a Brexit deal to keep this from rallying too much further.

GCG19 – my long options expired marginally in the money, so I’m now sitting on a long position of 3 contracts, stop at 1298 just below the entry of 1300 (strike of the call options).

SIF19 – a huge bounce in silver and it seems we are going to have another test of the 200 day moving average.

PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.

PAH19 – Still driving higher, bouncing off the 15 day moving average.

HGH19 – still moving higher, my 2.50 strike puts will probably expire worthless with only a couple of days to go.

SBH19 – still moving higher.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low. 100 would seem to be a big level and hearing stories of coffee plantation worker migration makes me think there is a good opportunity to go long from 99.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – very hard to read which means it’s probably not a good opportunity at this stage because there’s two competing themes.

LSH19 – Might provide a good opportunity to go short close to the 200 day moving average, near 399.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – Short around 6% through the 200 day moving average.

ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.

ZOH19 – buy near 280 at the 100 DMA?

RSH19 – Glad that I had a stop in place as the price has continued higher and I would have been bleeding now even though the bigger picture does not look good for canola. If this rally continues then it would probably be a good sell at the 100 day moving average which will be close to the previous High from the 7th of December at 496.30.

CLG19 – short near 55?

NGG19 – too much going on here for me to get involved. Right back near the lows.

LEM19 – need a little more detail in this because it could be a good buy around the 100 day moving average.

DYH19 – same as nasdaq and spx.

ESH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA. Don’t know how long I should wait with this but it’s not too far away now.

NQH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA.

VIG19 – going long from the 200 DMA.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– buy VIX
– buy OTM B6H19 put options.
– start buying near dated put option expiries for equities.
– opportunity to go short close to the 200 day moving average, near 399.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

Trading journal – 26th January

DXH19 – DXY fading from this bounce before I expected it , I thought it would probably test the 97 barrier before it came back to the 100 day moving average again.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14. It managed to respond well after dipping below 1.14 but the signs are a little bit ominous after failing at the 100 day moving average on the 10th of January and now making a new low since May 2017.

B6H19 – the contrarian still enjoying a bouncing the British Pound but the signals are overwhelmingly negative and if it manages to make it up anywhere near the 200 day moving average then I will definitely be selling.

GCG19 – my long options were going to expire worthless except for the surprising bounce which has taken them right up to the strike with only two more trading days to go. Certainly is a very interesting signal when the volume has all but expired on the underlying futures contract so perhaps someone pushing to get a favourable option expiry above 1300. I am going to leave a limit order in the system because with no volume in this contract and almost 2000 contracts through with a couple of days to maturity I’d be surprised if someone is not just trying to get a digital option strike in the money before expiry.

SIF19 – a huge bounce in silver and it seems we are going to have another test of the 200 day moving average.

PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.

PAH19 – Still driving higher, bouncing off the 15 day moving average.

HGH19 – still moving higher, my 2.50 strike puts will probably expire worthless with only a couple of days to go.

SBH19 – sugar got absolutely belted on pretty big volume but it’s only coming back to the midpoint of the large candle of the 7th of January which is at about 12.31 and the averages are almost all starting to turn higher so it’s an interesting context.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low. 100 would seem to be a big level and hearing stories of coffee plantation worker migration makes me think there is a good opportunity to go long from 99.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – very hard to read which means it’s probably not a good opportunity at this stage because there’s two competing themes.

LSH19 – Price up again and starting to look more positive now. This could be a rally up towards 402. Friday’s session saw a high of 392.20 which is a bit below the 200 day moving average of 399.60. Might provide a good opportunity to go short close to the 200 day moving average.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – maybe a great chance to sell around these levels from a technical point of view but there is a suspicion in the back of my mind that we could see a decent push through the 200 day moving average before it fails given the prospect of a Trump deal with China in the near term. My ideal scenario is to wait till it moves around 6% through the 200 day moving average before going short or buying some out of the money put options.

ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.

ZOH19 – strong rejection at 300. but looks like now the support was at the 100 DMA.

RSH19 – Glad that I had a stop in place as the price has continued higher and I would have been bleeding now even though the bigger picture does not look good for canola. If this rally continues then it would probably be a good sell at the 100 day moving average which will be close to the previous High from the 7th of December at 496.30.

CLG19 – got stopped out on this short trade and it is hanging around 54 at the moment. It’s only a short way through the retracement of that massive down move which finished on December 24, so there still could be quite a bit of room to go on the upside before we get to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. I don’t have any satistics to support any action at the moment so I’m just going to wait.

NGG19 – too much going on here for me to get involved.

LEM19 – need a little more detail in this because it could be a good buy around the 100 day moving average.

DYH19 – same as nasdaq and spx.

ESH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA. Don’t know how long I should wait with this but it’s not too far away now.

NQH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA.

VIG19 – going low from the 200 DMA.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– buy VIX
– start buying near dated put option expiries for equities.
– congratulate myself for sticking to my one week trading ban after having four losses in a row which cost me about 7% of my total portfolio.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.