Blog

Sugar – March 2019 contract

This is a set up that I am interested in. The price has taken some time to find a bottom, has made a higher low and now the moving averages have converged and started turning higher. Ideally buying somewhere near 12.50 with a stop just below the 20 Day moving average. It also could be worth buying some longer term options (3 or 6 month expiry. In the case it really does start moving.  This is how the cocoa move started last year and that moved around 30% in price terms. Sugar prices have been depressed for a while and this could be a good opportunity.

sugar sb11 march 2019 contract 2019 01 22

Trading Journal – 19th January 2019

DXH19 – DXY bouncing earlier than expected. no action for now.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14. Looks like my options will expire worthless at this stage.

B6H19 – I’m surprised Sterling is holding up so well after the Brexit vote. I thought some last minute fear of consequences would prompt the politicians to push it through. Clearly not!

GCG19 – Obviously I’m biased (being long) but at this stage just another pull back in the uptrend it looks like. I want to buy more call options but it could move against me. Don’t invest more until it shows a return. I did buy one more and wasted the premium by not following the previous rule. Price now fading away as could be expected but I got carried away in the moment and wasted capital. going long into a downtrend (by buying a call option).

SIF19 – I went long yesterday at 15.62 and a stop at 15.50. Down a bit this morning.

PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.

HGH19 – still moving higher, My impression is the rally should be faded but perhaps I should be more patient before acting.

SBH19 – got stopped out at 12.95. All the moving averages are coming together so there could be a positive outcome here.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low. 100 would seem to be a big level and hearing stories of coffee migration makes me think there is a good opportunity to go long from 99.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good, more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – The bounce is weakening already. Cotton could be making a bearish break – good set up to sell into the 40 day moving average.

LSH19 – Price up again and starting to look more positive now. This could be a rally up towards 402.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – Is it a buy around these levels? Maybe between 890-891 with a stop at 883.

ZMH19 – still finding support around 305.

ZOH19 – strong rejection at 300. but looks like now the support was at the 100 DMA.

RSH19 – I got stopped out at 483.

CLG19 – The previous high was 53.31, I have left a short order just under that level and stop just above.

NGG19 – huge volatile moves in gas continue. A big positive candle following the rejection earlier this week.

LEG19 – I got stopped out at 126.90

DYH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA.

ESH19 – I was stopped out at 2640. I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA.

NQH19 – I’m going to take on large short positions in cheap OTM options as the price moves towards the 200 DMA.

VIG19 – going low from the 200 DMA.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– buy VIX
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

Trading journal

Got stopped out on 4 trades this morning which feels bad given I’ve been buying cheap options and not had the volatility of trading outright positions, so I’ve had small downside with the occasional upside. Down about 7% on my portfolio today so going to take a break for a week from taking new outright positions, will just monitor existing positions. I still have quite a bit of options exposure and I’m glad all my stops got hit from a risk management point of view, I don’t have the battle of whether I close out the position even though I think the direction is correct.

Trading Journal – 17th January 2019

DXH19 – DXY bouncing earlier than expected. no action for now.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14. Looks like my options will expire worthless at this stage. I’ve left a limit order to sell if there is a spike to cover my cost. If the market breaks through 1.16 then it could quickly go higher, it has been consolidating sideways for quite some time.

B6H19 – I’m surprised Sterling is holding up so well after the Brexit vote. I thought some last minute fear of consequences would prompt the politicians to push it through. Clearly not!

GCG19 – Obviously I’m biased (being long) but at this stage just another pull back in the uptrend it looks like. I want to buy more call options but it could move against me. Don’t invest more until it shows a return. Price still holding up well. I bought another gold call option yesterday at 4.50.

SIF19 – I went long yesterday at 15.62 and a stop at 15.50. Down a bit this morning.

PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.

HGH19 – surprise rally on Wednesday, looking like it might have rejected the lows now.

SBH19 – A big up day for sugar and divergence from surrounding commodities. Two big impulses in the space of a week and the moving averages are all turning higher together. I went long at 13.10, stop at 12.95.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low but looks to be fading now. Back towards the previous low.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good.more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – The bounce is weakening already. Cotton could be making a bearish break – good set up to sell into the 40 day moving average.

LSH19 – Price up again and starting to look more positive now. This could be a rally up towards 402.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – Is it a buy around these levels? Maybe between 890-891 with a stop at 883.

ZMH19 – indecisive. Big failure on the 10th of January. A possible buy around 305 and a stop below 300?

ZOH19 – strong rejection at 300.

RSH19 – I went short at 477, stop at 483.

CLG19 – The previous high was 53.31, I have left a short order just under that level and stop just above.

NGG19 – huge volatile moves in gas continue.

LEG19 – I went long at 127, stop below at 126.90

DYH19 – still not getting to the 40 day moving average.

ESH19 – I went short at 2615 and a stop at 2640.

NQH19 – Put an entry order to sell at 6618 (the 40 DMA) and a stop at 6630. I got stopped out on this second attempt to get short on Wednesday. Think maybe I should buy a very short term option, like 2 or 3 days to expiry as a better stop. Still I have only paid $450 across both trades, so they are relatively tight stops.

VIG19 – the VIX is finally a buy again!!! back to 18.63, right at the 200 DMA. Forgot to buy yesterday, will buy today.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– buy VIX
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

Trading Journal – 16th January 2019

DXH19 – DXY bouncing earlier than expected. no action for now.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14. Looks like my options will expire worthless at this stage. I’ve left a limit order to sell if there is a spike to cover my cost. If the market breaks through 1.16 then it could quickly go higher, it has been consolidating sideways for quite some time.

B6H19 – Bought 2 put options with 3 days to expiry and 1.26 strike at 0.0015, sold 1 at 0.0030 and hanging on to the other one in case there’s a big move. I did consider selling the second one at 0.0030, if nothing changes in the short term then might just get rid of it. Sterling holding on for now after the Brexit vote rejected.

GCG19 – Obviously I’m biased (being long) but at this stage just another pull back in the uptrend it looks like. I want to buy more call options but it could move against me. Don’t invest more until it shows a return. Price still holding up well.

SIF19 – Another very positive day for silver. Could this be a break out? Definitely starting to look like there’s a good chance this will co

PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.

HGH19 – bought two copper put options each at 0.0115 and 0.100 (multiplier USD 25k) with a 2.50 and 2.49 strike respectively and 20 days to expiry. Seems to be coming off the short term rally after peaking on the 9th.

SBH19 – A big up day for sugar and divergence from surrounding commodities. Two big impulses in the space of a week and the moving averages are all turning higher together. I will look to buy near 13.00.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide, they are the last hurdle to break.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low but looks to be fading now. Back towards the previous low.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good.more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – The bounce is weakening already. Cotton could be making a bearish break – good set up to sell into the 40 day moving average.

LSH19 – Price up again although not very convincing.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – I took profit on this one at 924. The price seems at a cross roads and it is not clear who is going to prevail. Wait until there’s a clear winner and then get back on board.

ZMH19 – indecisive. Big failure on the 10th of January.

ZOH19 – strong rejection at 300.

RSH19 – the price DID NOT bounce off 480, bearish break? I’m going to sell with a stop just above 480.

CLG19 – Following the huge volume in the last 15 sessions I think there is a good chance of the price drifting back down again. The previous high was 53.31, which is not too far away now so I might have a chance to get short near the previous high.

NGG19 – huge volatile moves in gas continue.

LEG19 – Looking a lot more like a genuine move now. Break higher on big volume after a consolidation, going to try and get on board this one. Ideally just want to watch the following days price action for a pull back and then get long.

DYH19 – still not getting to the 40 day moving average.

ESH19 – I moved my entry order to sell at 2595 with a stop just above 2600 up to an entry of 2615 and a stop at 2640 to avoid what happened on the Nasdaq for comparable levels, however I’m not sure it’s going to get there.

NQH19 – Put an entry order to sell at 6618 (the 40 DMA) and a stop at 6630. I got stopped out on this second attempt to get short on Wednesday. Think maybe I should buy a very short term option, like 2 or 3 days to expiry as a better stop. Still I have only paid $450 across both trades, so they are relatively tight stops.

VIG19 – the VIX is finally a buy again!!! back to 18.63, right at the 200 DMA.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– think about long order for LEG19.
– consider selling other GBP put option.
– buy VIX contract

– go short RSH19 with a stop above 480.

– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

Trading Journal – 15th January 2019

DXH19 – Heading towards the 200 DMA? 93.77 is the current marker, waiting to see for the reaction but I would have to think it’s a buy if any of the scenarios come off, aside from a huge *and sustained* share market rally. A deal with China could do just that. Price still drifting lower, I would think based on the momentum it’s probably a sell here in the very short term – but is selling into an uptrend a good idea? no. Waiting for the buy.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14. Looks like my options will expire worthless at this stage. I’ve left a limit order to sell if there is a spike to cover my cost. If the market breaks through 1.16 then it could quickly go higher, it has been consolidating sideways for quite some time.

B6H19 – The price continues higher, the 200 DMA is at 1.3282 probably the short term target.

GCG19 – Obviously I’m biased (being long) but at this stage just another pull back in the uptrend it looks like. I want to buy more call options but it could move against me. Don’t invest more until it shows a return.

SIF19 – Another very positive day for silver. Could this be a break out?

PLH19 – the pullback did happen after the break out on the big bullish candle and I got filled on my buy order at 812 but stopped out towards the end of the session at 801.50.

HGH19 – bought two copper put options each at 0.0115 and 0.100 (multiplier USD 25k) with a 2.50 and 2.49 strike respectively and 20 days to expiry. Seems to be coming off the short term rally after peaking on the 9th.

SBH19 – Not something I want to get involved in at the moment.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low but looks to be fading now.

OJH19 – OJ overall not looking good.more likely to continue lower.

CTH19 – The bounce is weakening already.

LSH19 – I have been waiting on 300 for the price of lumber to reach but it’s possible though we may have just seen a higher low. I’ll only know once we reach the previous short term High around 375. The price is finding support around 325 at the moment so I’m not sure if the deep down to 300 was just temporary but certainly the moving averages are starting to flatten out.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – I took profit on this one at 924. The price seems at a cross roads and it is not clear who is going to prevail. Wait until there’s a clear winner and then get back on board.

ZMH19 – indecisive. Big failure on the 10th of January.

ZOH19 – nothing at the moment for me. Price is being being supported at the 100 DMA which is possibly a good sign – this is the first time since September the price has broken through the 100 DMA which was back at 254. I never did price those 300 strike call options up. Would have been a good trade but not to be this time – you do get paid to do the work.

RSH19 – the price bounced off 470 again

CLG19 – Following the huge volume in the last 15 sessions I think there is a good chance of the price drifting back down again. The previous high was 53.31, which is too far away now to get short.

NGG19 – Looks like I missed this one, probably would have been one of the biggest one day moves in my career. Was long at 2.98 and the price has exploded to 3.59!!! still without knowing the future I’m still glad I didn’t leave myself exposed to getting caught in the middle of a wash zone.

LEG19 – Looking a lot more like a genuine move now. Break higher on big volume after a consolidation.

DYH19 – still not getting to the 40 day moving average.

ESH19 – I moved my entry order to sell at 2595 with a stop just above 2600 up to an entry of 2615 and a stop at 2640 to avoid what happened on the Nasdaq for comparable levels, however I’m not sure it’s going to get there.

NQH19 – Put an entry order to sell at 6618 (the 40 DMA) and a stop at 6630. I got stopped out on this second attempt to get short on Wednesday. Think maybe I should buy a very short term option, like 2 or 3 days to expiry as a better stop. Still I have only paid $450 across both trades, so they are relatively tight stops.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– investigate cost of short term options on volatile NQ contract.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.

Trading Journal – 10th January 2019

DXH19 – Heading towards the 200 DMA? 93.77 is the current marker, waiting to see for the reaction but I would have to think it’s a buy if any of the scenarios come off, aside from a huge *and sustained* share market rally. A deal with China could do just that.

E6H19 – The Euro is still holding above 1.14. Looks like my options will expire worthless at this stage. I’ve left a limit order to sell if there is a spike to cover my cost. If the market breaks through 1.16 then it could quickly go higher, it has been consolidating sideways for quite some time.

B6H19 – The market did continue higher so I would have been stopped out anyway.

GCG19 – Obviously I’m biased (being long) but at this stage just another pull back in the uptrend it looks like. I want to buy more call options but it could move against me. Don’t invest more until it shows a return.

SIF19 – Another very positive day for silver. Could this be a break out?

PLH19 – Huge up day for platinum. Trend is down so wait for opportunity to get short.

HGH19 – bought two copper put options each at 0.0115 and 0.100 (multiplier USD 25k) with a 2.50 and 2.49 strike respectively and 20 days to expiry.

SBH19 – Not something I want to get involved in at the moment.

CCH19 – cocoa seems to be losing the battle, see if the medium term averages can halt the slide.

KCH19 – still finding support at the old low, and seems to be finding more buyers now. Still only coming back to the short term moving average. A good amount of volume done on the 8th January.

OJH19 – OJ finding some support now. I might get a positive outcome yet.

CTH19 – Good bounce from cotton, some newsletters mentioning to go long on a higher low (which I should point out is looking back on a very long term basis – only clear when you look at a 5yr chart).

LSH19 – I have been waiting on 300 for the price of lumber to reach but it’s possible though we may have just seen a higher low. I’ll only know once we reach the previous short term High around 375. The price is finding support around 325 at the moment so I’m not sure if the deep down to 300 was just temporary but certainly the moving averages are starting to flatten out.

ZWH19 – still sideways.

ZCH19 – no real pattern aside from a broad range trading between 400 and 360. So that would say buy at 360 and sell at 400.

ZSH19 – I took profit on this one at 924. The price seems at a cross roads and it is not clear who is going to prevail. Wait until there’s a clear winner and then get back on board.

ZMH19 – indecisive. The price has reached the previous high from the 3rd of December but is still a short distance away from the 200 day moving average. I’m inclined to believe that the will continue higher to the 200 day moving average but have no strong conviction about it going through.

ZOH19 – nothing at the moment for me. Price is being being supported at the 100 DMA which is possibly a good sign – this is the first time since September the price has broken through the 100 DMA which was back at 254. Probably worth buying some 300 strike call options with a couple of months to expiry.

RSH19 – the price bounced off 470 again

CLG19 – a huge amount of volume going through in this rally off the bottom, I can only imagine there are a lot of companies locking in there fuel exposures here. I doubt we have seen the last of the bearish action.

NGG19 – I went long at 2.9830 and then had a change of mind about being so far away from the most recent low and got out at 2.9610. The possibility of waiting through a move down to 2.8730 was too far so I paid the $200 and got out. I now have a limit order to enter just above that low.

LEG19 – Looking a lot more like a genuine move now. Break higher on big volume after a consolidation.

DYH19 – still not getting to the 40 day moving average.

ESH19 – I’ve still got an order in to sell at 2595 with a stop just above 2600 , so if the price rallies higher tonight then it might get filled.

NQH19 – Put an entry order to sell at 6618 (the 40 DMA) and a stop at 6630. I got stopped out on this second attempt to get short on Wednesday. Think maybe I should buy a very short term option, like 2 or 3 days to expiry as a better stop. Still I have only paid $450 across both trades, so they are relatively tight stops.

Action:
– after writing each entry, check whether I need to add an action to my list
– investigate cost of short term options on volatile NQ contract.
– review my daily journal for action items I have missed before sending it.