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Trading journal – 2nd December

DXZ18 – price is coming off after a positive few days, Powell’s dovish comments and probably could be expected to weaken further following the America China tariff pause.

GCG19 – the G20 agreement (between America and China also means risk on settings for gold, can expect weakness until the next Trump mis-step.

KCH19 – the downtrend resumes with the target still 98.55

ZWH19 – still sideways

CCH19 – rallying from 2100 for now. Nothing for me to do.

SBH19 – trying to go higher but failing for now.

HGZ18 – still nothing.

ZSF19 – looks like another test of 900 is coming. The shorter term averages are coming together so it would seem a good bet to buy soon on a break of 900 with the target at 940 and a stop just below the low on a break above 900.

ZMF19 – nothing

ZOH19 – hard to read, have to wait.

RSF19 – bounced of the 470 level so I’m just going to continue to watch for now. Might get a chance to sell when it tries to push through the 40 day moving average.

DYZ18 – it hasn’t bounced as far as I would have hoped so I’m probably just going to wait for now.

ESZ18 – I made a bad call on my risk management and got too large in this position, based on being excited about being right. I realised thinking about ‘how much is too much?’ that I’m comfortable with about 2-3% risk to my portfolio per trade. I sold two calls to try and get more leverage out of my short equity view, one at the money (2735) and the other very deep in the money (2630). The at the money call was probably the better trade of the two because that was almost all extrinsic value when I put the trade on. The option premium was 30.75 in points, so the contract can be up to 2765 at expiry and I’m just flat. I knew volatility was high, I had a negative view, we were approaching a previous high and the previous day’s candle showed indecision. The other short call position had much more intrinsic value and I had confused my rationale about why to buy it, after looking at deep out of the money puts and thinking they’re overpriced so therefore the opposite must be underpriced. The price is right up against the 200 day moving average, which is currently at 2769 and the 40 day moving average has been a good selling zone, where previously it was a good buying zone (usually up to 2% above the 40 day has been a good sell zone). So plan is to get out of the deep in the money call at the open and then watch the second to expiry on the 5th of December. I’m almost tempted to go long the underlying contract as a hedge against the volatility and try to take it off when momentum slows. It does feel like compounding the error though. Better to accept the loss and get out with the first price.

NQZ18 – “All I need now is Trump to disappoint in Buenos Aires” and that’s just when you know you’re positioned wrong… still thinking we will get a negative outcome in equities but will have to watch carefully for the open in case there’s a lot of buyers waiting to crush the shorts. In the charts it was another relatively weak session but one that in a neutral circumstance I would assume it building to break higher looking at the last 10 sessions… or about to sell off based on the last 40 sessions (lower highs and lower lows). Also all the 6 highest volume sessions in the last 3 months were red (i.e. closed lower than they opened) but that is just me comforting myself about the position. Have to focus on individual trade riskmanagement.

LSF19 – waiting on 300

CTH19 – nothing on cotton for now, support around 77 has worked well twice now.

OJF19 – waiting to see if the bounce has legs.

SIF19 – waiting for 14.

PLF19 – didn’t get a position on this one, the horse has bolted for now. Wait for a follow-up theme.

VIZ18 – lower again and now a lower high than the previous High near 22.

Actions required as a result of today’s journal
– watch the open on U.S. equities for the move to the 200 day moving average.

Trading journal – 30th November

DXZ18 – price holding around the 15 day moving average at the moment.

GCG19 – slight bias to think this is going higher.

KCH19 – might be worth going long if it approaches 110 again with a stop just below the previous low from the 26th November.

ZWH19 – still sideways

CCH19 – waiting for 2000. But so far the buying has been at 2100. Is this a rally before another sell off or a higher low? only time will tell.

SBH19 – I would say that’s a big sell now for sugar, massive rejection of the previous day’s bullishness. Still the upper tail is so long it’s not a good risk reward for me to enter.

HGZ18 – still nothing.

ZSF19 – nothing. All I can say is it has moved up towards the top of the range and more than anything else might be a short sell around these levels.

ZMF19 – nothing

ZOH19 – I might still get a chance here, have to wait and see if it comes back to the 40 day moving average.

RSF19 – bounced off the 470 level so I’m just going to continue to watch for now. Might get a chance to sell when it tries to push through the 40 day moving average.

DYZ18 – it hasn’t bounced as far as I would have hoped so I’m probably just going to wait for now.

ESZ18 – Thursday’s price action was almost perfect, a doji candle at the end of a rally into the 40 day moving average, making a lower high (if it holds). Have to wait and see.

NQZ18 – similar to the e-mini S&P above but a doji after a few days rally. All I need now is Trump to disappoint in Buenos Aires and we could see a test of 6500.

LSF19 – also missed my entry on lumber at 365 (didn’t have an order in) so just have to wait for a better opportunity. I’ll be interested to see how it reacts to the 300 level this time.

CTH19 – nothing on cotton for now

OJF19 – HUGE bullish session yesterday from OJ, a big surprise. Unless the price is telling us some weather related issues are afoot then I can only guess a fund is ripping into the shorts. the 200 day moving average is the likely target and would be a great place to take a short for me.

SIF19 – waiting for 14.

PLF19 – might be about to plunge… looking very weak.

VIZ18 – just waiting for now, the 40 day moving average seems the safe place to add.

actions required as a result of today’s price action?
– decide on stop for PLF19 entry.

*Apologies I had to edit this after using an earlier version of the draft my 1 year old spilt some milk on my keyboard and the “i” and “o” were stuck.

Trading journal – 29th November

DXZ18 – with this trend being relatively strong and sturdy it looks like this would be a good buy around the 40 day moving average which is currently at 96.13. Buying the dip has been relatively consistent near that marker over the last 3 months.

GCG19 – I’m surprised that gold was not weaker over the last couple of days but it certainly looks like there is some strong support and some good buying around 1218.

KCH19 – Wednesday’s candle was bullish and perhaps it is just a retracement to the 61.8% level before it moves higher again.

ZWH19 – still sideways

CCH19 – waiting for 2000. But so far the buying has been at 2100.

SBH19 – a massive up day for sugar moving over 4% in a very bullish manner but not on particularly strong volume. A little bit strange but I don’t have anything to do besides watch and wait right now.

HGZ18 – still nothing.

ZSF19 – nothing. All I can say is it has moved up towards the top of the range and more than anything else might be a short sell around these levels.

ZMF19 – nothing

ZOH19 – a big bounce from 280 and I did not get on board during Wednesday session eyes have been a bit distracted with work and focusing on my S&P e-mini position. A missed opportunity to go long with a bit of buffer in it now but I’ll wait and see where it goes from here.

RSF19 – bounced of the 470 level so I’m just going to continue to watch for now. Might get a chance to sell when it tries to push through the 40 day moving average.

DYZ18 – it hasn’t bounced as far as I would have hoped so I’m probably just going to wait for now.

ESZ18 – I’m currently short 2 units of the e mini S&P at an average of 2752 but it looks like I’m going to be tested on whether I’m willing to let this go a little bit underwater just because my view is the trend is down. It’s gone all the way down to 2730 but since then most of the profit has been erased, so currently only about $1.5k in the money. Perhaps I should have an order to sell one unit at 2752 then I can still have some of the position to risk if it does go back in my favour.

NQZ18 – finally got to do some bounce and I’m very happy to get a chance to take a short position so I sold one unit at 6905.

LSF19 – also missed my entry on lumber at 365 (didn’t have an order in) so just have to wait for a better opportunity. I’ll be interested to see how it reacts to the 300 level this time.

CTH19 – nothing on cotton for now

OJF19 – still thinking it will fade

SIF19 – waiting for 14. Although I did note on Wednesday’s session that there was a spike in volume along with the buying so perhaps it’s already made it’s test of 14.

PLF19 – doesn’t look like it’s going to get back up to the 200 day moving average anytime in the next week.

VIZ18 – went long at 18.30 so just gonna sit back and get some popcorn to watch the show.

Trading journal – 28th November

DXZ18 – still building for a run at the previous high, 97.50. Should happen shortly.

GCZ18 – Noise. Fading from a lower high. If the price gets down to 1180 I’d be tempted to go long.

KCH19 – got a small bounce but nothing major for me period one interesting thing I did note is the 61.8% retracement level of the move from 98 up to 129 is 110 so if it holds here then this could actually be a big bullish move.

ZWH19 – a weak really and now drifting lower again, mostly due to the US dollar move I would guess.

CCH19 – waiting for 2000.

SBH19 – the 61.8 percent retracement of the move from late September to late October is 12.11 so it will be interesting to watch that level similar to the move in coffee.

HGZ18 – still nothing.

ZSF19 – nothing.

ZMZ18 – soybean meal looks to be preparing for a possibly significant downside break. It’s had a long uptrend and has gone sideways for the last 3 years between 300 and 400 with a couple of false breaks on the upside. Now we are seeing a consolidated test of the downside. Anything below 300 would be good to see and then 285 would be the next hurdle to clear.

ZOH19 – I think this is a good buy for me around current levels. The 40 day moving average has provided good support and we’ve seen a series of higher lows and higher highs.

RSF19 – it’s dropping towards 470 so I think I’m keen to take a short position on a break below that level with a stop just above.

DYZ18 – this is the selling opportunity that I’ve been looking for with a move up towards the 40 day moving average. I think if I can get short anywhere between 11520 and 11600 and that would be great. However given there is already a previous high around 11500 I might not get the chance to sell that high.

LSF19 – didn’t get the chance to sell this time because I didn’t have an order in at 365 and the high was 367. Poor attention to detail. Also perhaps a low conviction trade as I’m not that upset about it.

CTH19 – very volatile around the lows so just not a good time to get involved

OJF19 – I’m expecting it will fade from here but there’s no action for me to take.

SIF19 – waiting for 14. It seems to be getting there.

PLF19 – I’ll be interested to see if this rally continues and we get another chance to sell somewhere near the 200 day moving average. This looks like a great downtrend to get on to.

VIZ18 – waiting for around 18.50 before going long again. Almost there.

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Trading journal – 27th September

DXZ18 – still finding good support at the 40 day moving average but not a good risk reward for entry. Building for a run at the previous high, 97.50.

GCZ18 – Noise. Fading from a lower high.

KCH19 – looks like this will continue back down to 100.

ZWH19 – wheat bought again at the lows, still lacking direction though.

CCZ18 – is it a buy near 2000? I’m not sure. so that’s a no.

SBH19 – If this keeps on going sideways we could see the longer term moving averages start to turn higher.

HGZ18 – still nothing. The congregation of the moving averages may signal the price is building for a move higher, however I could only see the target in the short term as the 200 day moving average.

ZSF19 – pretty negative session – does the downtrend resume? I would think so but only after a downside break of 825.

ZMZ18 – soybean meal looks to be preparing for a possibly significant downside break. It’s had a long uptrend and has gone sideways for the last 3 years between 300 and 400 with a couple of false breaks on the upside. Now we are seeing a consolidated test of the downside. Anything below 300 would be good to see and then 285 would be the next hurdle to clear.

ZOH19 – glad I avoided this one for now, however if I was looking to buy at the 40 day moving average then this would be a good time to do it. I will look to see where price opens on Tuesday’s session.

RSF19 – it’s dropping towards 470 so I think I’m keen to take a short position on a break below that level with a stop just above.

DYZ18 – this might be the selling opportunity that I’ve been looking for with a move up towards the 40 day moving average. I think if I can get short anywhere between 11520 and 11600 and that would be great.

LSF19 – looks like it’s starting to lose momentum and could be a good sell with a target down it 300 . If my entry was at the current market price which is 356 then a stop would need to be at 375 and then I would be targeting 55 points on the down side so the risk reward is not great but if I was to wait for an entry at 365 then the risk reward would become 4 to 1.

CTH19 – very volatile around the lows so just not a good time to get involved

OJF19 – I’m expecting it will fade from here but there’s no action for me to take

SIF19 – waiting for 14.

VIZ18 – waiting for around 18.50 before going long again.

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Trading journal – 26th November

DXZ18 – still finding good support at the 40 day moving average but not a good risk reward for entry

GCZ18 – still mostly noise at this stage but I am impressed the way the midpoint of the candle from the 11th of October has provided support and the bears were not able to push below the bottom of the candle from that day. No good entry points so just watching for now.

KCH19 – looks like this will continue back down to 100. I was too aggressive in my initial adding to the position for this particular move so have missed out on about 10 big figures. Still when adding to the position every 3% works it’s spectacular so I need to keep that in mind as a balancing fact that I’ll miss out on trades like this.

ZWH19 – if I step back to a 6 month chart this looks like it’s going to break down through the lows and in addition there’s the maintenance of a big round number to push through so I would expect 500 to get tripped off shortly. The next Target below there is 482.

CCZ18 – even though there’s been a clear downtrend since the peak in May the last section of this downtrend makes me wonder if it’s not starting to consolidate sideways. It has made a new low back in October but we’re coming up to the 1850 level where the last big bull market launched from.

SBH19 – similar to coffee seems to be drifting lower with the eventual target I would expect around 11.

HGZ18 – still nothing

ZSF19 – sideways

ZMZ18 – sideways

ZOH19 – going to wait. Would like to see this pull back a little bit closer to the 40 day moving average before going long.

RSF19 – looking back through the last year the picture is definitely negative for canola with the peak from 600 being met by a lower high on every major rally and the price drifting down towards the bottom of the range at 475. Looking at a 5 year chart it’s not 2 Extended and there’s still room on the downside for the price to make a major break first towards the 450 level and then below that to the 400 level. It’s probably worth taking a short position on a break below 470 for me.

DYZ18 – could not break through 11000 just yet but you would think that is given shortly.

LSF19 – if this got up to 382 I think it would be a good sell for me because once a downtrend has started I find that frequently the 100 day moving average is a good place to get on board.

CTH19 – 76.60 is the bottom of the most recent range so I would expect that to be tested either need some and if that break is successful that will probably set direction for the following month or so.

OJF19 – no signal for me here.

SIF19 – waiting for 14.

VIZ18 – waiting for around 18.50 before going long again.

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Trading Journal – 23rd November

DXZ18 – no action required

GCZ18 – too many mixed signals.

KCH19 – Sideways. The 200 DMA is flattening out.

ZWH19 – I’m want to put in a buy order around 503 and a stop at 497 but i feel like the price will probably test the lows sometime soon, fail and then move higher. It hasn’t tested the lows yet so I should wait as it’s not really a great setup.

CCZ18 – nothing for now.

SBH19 – the longer it trades sideways, the more this could start to form a longer term low. Nothing to do yet.

HGZ18 – nothing for now.

ZSF19 – sideways

ZMZ18 – sideways

ZOZ18 – going to wait.

RSF19 – holiday so no change to my view.

DYZ18 – still soft but no good entry available.

LSF19 – holiday so no change to my view.

CTH19 – holiday so no change to my view.

OJF19 – holiday so no change to my view.

SIZ18 – holiday so no change to my view.

VIZ18 – waiting for around 18.50 before going long again.

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